Here”s Why I Think Delhi Is Headed Towards A Hung Assembly

Posted on October 8, 2013 in Politics at Play

By Surendran Balachandran:

Delhi elections are just around the corner. Election analysis reports are beginning to surface along with pre-poll predictions. All the three pre-poll surveys conducted for Delhi 2013 elections predict a different outcome. So I thought of digging the data from the past elections and see what they suggest.

Looks like the Congress is slowly losing its vote share while BJP is gradually gaining. In the last 15 years, Congress’ share has dipped to 40% from 47%, whereas BJP has increased its share from 33% to 36%. This is pretty clear from the Total Votes’ Share (Number of votes as a percentage of total eligible voters) and the Polled Votes’ Share (Number of votes as a percentage of the total votes polled).

Total Votes

Similar is the case with the total number of seats won by Congress and BJP. The seat share, however, is not as close a contest as the vote share is.

Seats

With Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) jumping into elections, the scenario has become even more interesting. AAP is expected to cut into the vote shares of both BJP and Congress though we don’t know who is going to lose how much.

My prediction is that Delhi is headed for a hung assembly with advantage to BJP. I might be totally wrong and this isn’t a scientific prediction. It is part based on projecting the past analysis for this year and the other part is based on assumptions. We will know the final verdict on Dec 8, 2013.

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