By Rohit Sachdeva:
With a strong condemnation from G8 countries (US, Britain, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada) on the missile activities in North Korea, Pyongyang is again faced with the hindrance in her defence conspiracies but this time the warning has come from the group of leading countries, which could force Kim Jong-un to re-think about his motives. With North Korea’s strategy being unclear but intentions understandable, the International Security Council is now planning to take some tough steps towards North Korea’s provocation.
The North has moved two missiles on the edge, one being targeted towards the Island of Guam, which is the military base of United States of America in Korean peninsula and the other likely to have it trajectory towards Japan which has sent a shrill across Tokyo. Although this is not the first time that North Korea has launched missiles, as earlier, it has been testing some short range missiles but this time the missiles are long ranged. The others major reasons being the offensive speeches by Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s President against South Korea, blocking the entry of South Korean workers to the Keasong Industrial Complex inside the North Korea continues to pressure Seoul during South Korea’s military exercises between nations. The North Korea’s provocation started in Last December when she successfully launched a satellite into the space, which was widely viewed as showcasing another test of its long range missile technology.
Is China and Russia being diplomatic and indeed quite on this provocation which has come out as a threat to the International Security or United Nation is overestimating this? The answer lies in the bloody history of Korean War which happened after the Second world war with the victory of the allied powers. Korean War was first marked conflict of the Cold war between USSR (now Russia) and United States. Korean Peninsula was ruled by Qing dynasty, Mongolians and then by Japanese. After Japan lost World war 2 from the Allies, USSR and USA captured the Korean Peninsula and division started along the 38 parallel of Korea. The North part was taken by USSR and communism was settled in there while the South Korea was captured by United States and a democratic set up was established. During 1950, the cruel form of communism tried to destabilize the Southern part and started capturing the area. United States retaliated but due to heavy losses in World war, the Northern part dominated and tried to push United States forces to the sea but with the sudden shift, many nations joined USA in its motives to save South Korea and then forces were able to get back the Southern territory after 3 years of blood shedding war. Human rights were violated, international security code was breached and sovereignty of a nation was disrupted by North Korea but UN was unable to impose sanction against them due to backing by China and USSR, the leading powers of the world then.
Even today the same has been repeated by North Korea. Kim Jong Yun is trying again to breach the international code of conduct by threatening South Korea. Beijing fears that a nuclear-armed North Korea could stimulate South Korea to develop its own nuclear weapons or induce the United States to redeploy U.S. nuclear weapons in South Korea. Japan might also pursue an independent nuclear capability.
Beijing also fears that a nuclear North Korea would provide a pretext for the U.S. to boost its missile defense efforts in East Asia, potentially weakening China’s nuclear deterrent, and to strengthen its military presence and ties with allies in the region, increasing a feeling of encirclement in China.
Domestically, North Korea’s actions have angered Chinese citizens, with many seeing the policy of indulging North Korea as a failure. They want their leaders to impose stricter sanctions to curb Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, including cutting economic aid and more effectively enforcing U.N. sanctions. The Chinese public fears that an accident from a nuclear test or weapon could cause heavy radioactive contamination in their own nation.
Chinese policymakers, however, face a dilemma. Amid growing tensions with other nations over disputed islands in the East and South China seas, they are suspicious of Washington’s long-term strategic intentions in the region, particularly it’s rebalancing toward the Asia Pacific. They are concerned that, if freed from the North Korean nuclear crisis, Washington will turn its focus to containing China instead.
Beijing’s position toward Pyongyang is unlikely to change significantly in the near future. Beijing’s bottom line is that war on the Korean peninsula and an abrupt collapse of the Kim Jong Un regime must be avoided. Both could create massive refugee flows into China and possibly put U.S. troops at China’s border.
With Beijing remaining silent over it and at the same time not pressing for war, same is the theory followed by Russia due to almost the same factors with additional fact that at such a crucial moment of time when actually the peace has been established in Russia and it has again caught the league of leading nations, it does not want to lose that with involving itself in the war as this time Russia might be left alone if war front is formulated.
But even after such political rhetoric, experts say that the chances are pretty high that Kim Jong Yun would strive for a war for the reunification of Korean Peninsula. If such kind of situation arises then it is going to be a huge war, a war stronger in intensity and bigger in magnitude than others. The destruction would be irreparable although specualtions say that North Korea has not got such defense capability that it could tackle United States but inclusion of Beijing, Russia and other supporting nation of Kim’s side could lead to a disaster. The whole scenario of Korean was would be repeated but time the level would be outpouring with unexpectedly harsh consequences.