This post has been self-published on Youth Ki Awaaz by IndiaSpend. Just like them, anyone can publish on Youth Ki Awaaz.

#BiharResults Explained: 5 Reasons Why The Modi Wave Crashed In The Elections

More from IndiaSpend

By Abhishek Waghmare, IndiaSpend.com: 

Five factors – the sway of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, high voter turnout, vote swing against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), declining vote share of the BJP and talks of reservation and Pakistan by the BJP leaders – ensured a sweeping victory for the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in Bihar.

The alliance – including the Janata Dal (U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress – trounced the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) by winning 178 out of the 243 Bihar assembly seats for which results were announced today.

The social base provided by the RJD and the Congress, along with development in the last decade, went in favour of the Nitish Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan.

“The nation has chosen an alternative path for development,” Sharad Yadav, president of JD (U), said while talking to NDTV. Out of all the exit polls, only one by Lalu Prasad himself was the closest (he had predicted 190).

“The victory of Grand Alliance will change the course of national politics,” RJD leader Lalu Prasad said.

The JD (U) had contested 141 seats in 2010 and won 115 while the BJP had contested 102 seats and won 91 seats.

The NDA in Bihar split following the announcement of Narendra Modi as the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP in 2013. The split ended a 17-year old alliance between the BJP and the JD (U).

The JD (U) was the biggest ally to quit the NDA; other big allies like the Shiv Sena, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) continued with the NDA.

While the opposition to NDA was negligible in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, Nitish Kumar was, and still remains, the most vocal opponent of Narendra Modi.

The political realignment in Bihar saw erstwhile foes, Lalu Prasad’s RJD, the Congress and the JD (U) form the Mahagathbandhan, which swept the polls.

Factor 1: Nitish Sway (Nitish Niti) Holds

“Vipaksh ka sammaan karenge, majaak nahin udayenge (We will not disrespect the opposition in any manner),” said Nitish Kumar, who is expected to be the Chief Minister for the third time, while addressing the media today.

Bihar is one of the few states that have not seen a Congress Chief Minister for more than 25 years. Regional leaders and regional politics have always been the prime mover in Bihar, which is among the poorest of Indian states.

The Grand Alliance was formed as a united opposition against the BJP, which now enjoys a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha (lower house of the Parliament) while ruling or sharing power in 11 states.

The BJP is already in power in three states of the Hindi heartland – Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Nitish Kumar, in the last decade or so, has become the face of changing Bihar. The development in Bihar was propelled by growth in construction, communication, trade and hospitality and the banking and finance industry, according to Economic Survey of Bihar, 2014-15.

The Nitish-led coalition matched the progress in economy with equal focus on social sectors – women empowerment and child development.

The government led by Nitish Kumar, in the last decade, also implemented 50%reservations for women in panchayats (against 33% previously in village councils) and reservations for the post of Mukhiya (head of the village council).

The flagship Mukhyamantri Gram SadakYojana (Chief Minister’s Rural Road Development Scheme) and Manav Vikas Mission 2013-2017 were launched to ensure economic growth as well as improving social sectors.

Factor 2: Voter turnout

The people of Bihar ticked up a new record for turnout in this assembly election. It surpassed the 2014 Lok Sabha election, which was considered a wave.

High voter turnout, which crossed 60% only in three earlier elections, ensured a victory for Grand Alliance. Thus, it was a repeat of history as the RJD won the past three times voting crossed 60%: when Mandal Commission was applied, OBC reservations were in place and Jharkhand was yet to be carved out.

Voter turnout reduced consistently after the ouster of Lalu Prasad from power.

Nitish Kumar, an opponent of Lalu Prasad, strategically teamed up with the BJP and became the Railway Minister in the Vajpayee cabinet twice – 1998-99 and 2002-04.

Since then, he has reinvented himself as a “clean” leader with a mixed support base unlike Lalu Prasad who has received consistent support from Muslims and Yadavs (31% of electorate).

With electoral support from the BJP and sparkling administration that showed results in infrastructure and per capita income, Nitish Kumar consolidated a firm rural-plus-urban, multi–class, multi–caste voter base.

He became the face of Bihar’s development, and the electorate reciprocated it with a decisive vote.

Factor 3: Role Of Swinging Vote Share

Facing the BJP juggernaut independently in the Lok Sabha elections, the JD(U) on one hand and the RJD + Congress on the other garnered 45% vote share but won only nine out of 40 seats.

NDA, on the other hand, got only 39% of total votes but won 30 seats.

The present Grand Alliance garnered 42% vote share in the 2015 assembly election and won 178 seats. The NDA won only 58 seats with a 34.3 % vote share.

 

The three major parties of Grand Alliance recorded a low share-to-seat multiplier in the Lok Sabha 2014 election as explained in IndiaSpend’s earlier article.

The RJD won 22 seats with 19% vote share in the 2010 assembly election, and won four parliamentary seats with 20% votes in 2014.

The JD (U), which won 115 seats with 22% votes in 2010, won just two seats with 16% vote share in 2014. In the 2014 general election, the Grand Alliance won just nine out of 40 seats.

The combined share of three parties skewed the seat-share logic this time; the grand alliance actually managed to get past the post than NDA candidates in the right number of seats.

As explained in an earlier article, the same voting pattern did hold true for the assembly election, which had given the Mahagathbandhan (if it had been devised) lead in 145 assembly segments in Lok Sabha 2014.

The BJP had won a full majority in Lok Sabha with 31% vote share pan-India but NDA failed to win a majority with an increased vote share of 34%.

Grand Alliance In Power

The last two terms of Bihar assembly were ruled by the BJP-JD(U) combine. That combined vote share has certainly swung towards the Grand Alliance. The coming together of top two politicians of the state – one with a history of Mandal politics while the other who transgressed and created post–Mandal development politics – and the Congress has won rich electoral dividends.

Election observers/researchers feel that the accord between the candidates of constituent parties and fewer instances of rebellion proved instrumental in Grand Alliance’s victory.

The traditional RJD voters – Muslim Yadav (MY) communities – played key roles in re-establishing Nitish Kumar in power.

Factor 4: Declining Vote Share Of BJP

The vote share of the BJP in states increased in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections (2013 to 2014). The party secured handsome vote share in the assembly polls in states in 2013 – namely Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, and formed governments there. On the one hand, the BJP secured higher vote share in the same states in the subsequent Lok Sabha election.

On the other hand, the vote share of the BJP has been declining in assembly elections after the Lok Sabha elections.

In all the states, except Maharashtra, the vote share of the BJP has declined in the subsequent assembly elections.

In Maharashtra, the support from Shiv Sena was inevitable for the BJP. In Jharkhand, the BJP rules a minority government while in Jammu and Kashmir; they could not surpass the regional party PDP.

Getting into power in Jammu and Kashmir was a big achievement for the BJP but it had to settle as a smaller partner in the ruling coalition, courtesy the lower vote share.

Bihar was yet another assembly election after the Lok Sabha polls, and the BJP’s vote share has reduced. The vote share of 30% in 2014 Lok Sabha polls reduced to less than 25% in 2015, and the party received a blow winning just 53 seats.

Factor 5: Reservation, Pakistan Talk Went Against BJP

Apart from numerical factors and electoral statistics, sociological and psychological undercurrents played critical roles in the Bihar elections.

The Bihar campaign started with rants of reversing other backward class (OBC) reservation from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

The communal incident in Dadri, Uttar Pradesh of lynching a person over suspicion of carrying beef raised the issue of gross intolerance.

Prime Minister and the BJP star campaigner in Bihar Narendra Modi, rather than assuaging the communal tensions around it, created a new controversy by invoking Pakistan in the middle of the campaign.

The Lalu-Nitish combine was deft enough to convince people about the ills of such rhetoric in action, and the people obliged. And obliged powerfully.

The Mahagathbandhan excelled in engaging directly with people. Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad, deciding not to contest the election, travelled to almost every constituency in the state, with both of them crossing the mark of 200 rallies, according to reports.

While the NDA combined grand rallies of Prime Minister Modi with local rallies by Ram Vilas Paswan, Jiten Ram Manjhi, BJP leader Sushil Modi and Amit Shah, the Grand Alliance focused only on local rallies by the two leaders.

(Waghmare is an analyst with IndiaSpend)

This article was originally published on IndiaSpend.com, a data-driven and public-interest journalism non-profit.

You must be to comment.

More from IndiaSpend

Similar Posts

By Ronak Aazad

By Imran Khan

By Mister August

Wondering what to write about?

Here are some topics to get you started

Share your details to download the report.









We promise not to spam or send irrelevant information.

Share your details to download the report.









We promise not to spam or send irrelevant information.

An ambassador and trained facilitator under Eco Femme (a social enterprise working towards menstrual health in south India), Sanjina is also an active member of the MHM Collective- India and Menstrual Health Alliance- India. She has conducted Menstrual Health sessions in multiple government schools adopted by Rotary District 3240 as part of their WinS project in rural Bengal. She has also delivered training of trainers on SRHR, gender, sexuality and Menstruation for Tomorrow’s Foundation, Vikramshila Education Resource Society, Nirdhan trust and Micro Finance, Tollygunj Women In Need, Paint It Red in Kolkata.

Now as an MH Fellow with YKA, she’s expanding her impressive scope of work further by launching a campaign to facilitate the process of ensuring better menstrual health and SRH services for women residing in correctional homes in West Bengal. The campaign will entail an independent study to take stalk of the present conditions of MHM in correctional homes across the state and use its findings to build public support and political will to take the necessary action.

Saurabh has been associated with YKA as a user and has consistently been writing on the issue MHM and its intersectionality with other issues in the society. Now as an MHM Fellow with YKA, he’s launched the Right to Period campaign, which aims to ensure proper execution of MHM guidelines in Delhi’s schools.

The long-term aim of the campaign is to develop an open culture where menstruation is not treated as a taboo. The campaign also seeks to hold the schools accountable for their responsibilities as an important component in the implementation of MHM policies by making adequate sanitation infrastructure and knowledge of MHM available in school premises.

Read more about his campaign.

Harshita is a psychologist and works to support people with mental health issues, particularly adolescents who are survivors of violence. Associated with the Azadi Foundation in UP, Harshita became an MHM Fellow with YKA, with the aim of promoting better menstrual health.

Her campaign #MeriMarzi aims to promote menstrual health and wellness, hygiene and facilities for female sex workers in UP. She says, “Knowledge about natural body processes is a very basic human right. And for individuals whose occupation is providing sexual services, it becomes even more important.”

Meri Marzi aims to ensure sensitised, non-discriminatory health workers for the needs of female sex workers in the Suraksha Clinics under the UPSACS (Uttar Pradesh State AIDS Control Society) program by creating more dialogues and garnering public support for the cause of sex workers’ menstrual rights. The campaign will also ensure interventions with sex workers to clear misconceptions around overall hygiene management to ensure that results flow both ways.

Read more about her campaign.

MH Fellow Sabna comes with significant experience working with a range of development issues. A co-founder of Project Sakhi Saheli, which aims to combat period poverty and break menstrual taboos, Sabna has, in the past, worked on the issue of menstruation in urban slums of Delhi with women and adolescent girls. She and her team also released MenstraBook, with menstrastories and organised Menstra Tlk in the Delhi School of Social Work to create more conversations on menstruation.

With YKA MHM Fellow Vineet, Sabna launched Menstratalk, a campaign that aims to put an end to period poverty and smash menstrual taboos in society. As a start, the campaign aims to begin conversations on menstrual health with five hundred adolescents and youth in Delhi through offline platforms, and through this community mobilise support to create Period Friendly Institutions out of educational institutes in the city.

Read more about her campaign. 

A student from Delhi School of Social work, Vineet is a part of Project Sakhi Saheli, an initiative by the students of Delhi school of Social Work to create awareness on Menstrual Health and combat Period Poverty. Along with MHM Action Fellow Sabna, Vineet launched Menstratalk, a campaign that aims to put an end to period poverty and smash menstrual taboos in society.

As a start, the campaign aims to begin conversations on menstrual health with five hundred adolescents and youth in Delhi through offline platforms, and through this community mobilise support to create Period Friendly Institutions out of educational institutes in the city.

Find out more about the campaign here.

A native of Bhagalpur district – Bihar, Shalini Jha believes in equal rights for all genders and wants to work for a gender-equal and just society. In the past she’s had a year-long association as a community leader with Haiyya: Organise for Action’s Health Over Stigma campaign. She’s pursuing a Master’s in Literature with Ambedkar University, Delhi and as an MHM Fellow with YKA, recently launched ‘Project अल्हड़ (Alharh)’.

She says, “Bihar is ranked the lowest in India’s SDG Index 2019 for India. Hygienic and comfortable menstruation is a basic human right and sustainable development cannot be ensured if menstruators are deprived of their basic rights.” Project अल्हड़ (Alharh) aims to create a robust sensitised community in Bhagalpur to collectively spread awareness, break the taboo, debunk myths and initiate fearless conversations around menstruation. The campaign aims to reach at least 6000 adolescent girls from government and private schools in Baghalpur district in 2020.

Read more about the campaign here.

A psychologist and co-founder of a mental health NGO called Customize Cognition, Ritika forayed into the space of menstrual health and hygiene, sexual and reproductive healthcare and rights and gender equality as an MHM Fellow with YKA. She says, “The experience of working on MHM/SRHR and gender equality has been an enriching and eye-opening experience. I have learned what’s beneath the surface of the issue, be it awareness, lack of resources or disregard for trans men, who also menstruate.”

The Transmen-ses campaign aims to tackle the issue of silence and disregard for trans men’s menstruation needs, by mobilising gender sensitive health professionals and gender neutral restrooms in Lucknow.

Read more about the campaign here.

A Computer Science engineer by education, Nitisha started her career in the corporate sector, before realising she wanted to work in the development and social justice space. Since then, she has worked with Teach For India and Care India and is from the founding batch of Indian School of Development Management (ISDM), a one of its kind organisation creating leaders for the development sector through its experiential learning post graduate program.

As a Youth Ki Awaaz Menstrual Health Fellow, Nitisha has started Let’s Talk Period, a campaign to mobilise young people to switch to sustainable period products. She says, “80 lakh women in Delhi use non-biodegradable sanitary products, generate 3000 tonnes of menstrual waste, that takes 500-800 years to decompose; which in turn contributes to the health issues of all menstruators, increased burden of waste management on the city and harmful living environment for all citizens.

Let’s Talk Period aims to change this by

Find out more about her campaign here.

Share your details to download the report.









We promise not to spam or send irrelevant information.

A former Assistant Secretary with the Ministry of Women and Child Development in West Bengal for three months, Lakshmi Bhavya has been championing the cause of menstrual hygiene in her district. By associating herself with the Lalana Campaign, a holistic menstrual hygiene awareness campaign which is conducted by the Anahat NGO, Lakshmi has been slowly breaking taboos when it comes to periods and menstrual hygiene.

A Gender Rights Activist working with the tribal and marginalized communities in india, Srilekha is a PhD scholar working on understanding body and sexuality among tribal girls, to fill the gaps in research around indigenous women and their stories. Srilekha has worked extensively at the grassroots level with community based organisations, through several advocacy initiatives around Gender, Mental Health, Menstrual Hygiene and Sexual and Reproductive Health Rights (SRHR) for the indigenous in Jharkhand, over the last 6 years.

Srilekha has also contributed to sustainable livelihood projects and legal aid programs for survivors of sex trafficking. She has been conducting research based programs on maternal health, mental health, gender based violence, sex and sexuality. Her interest lies in conducting workshops for young people on life skills, feminism, gender and sexuality, trauma, resilience and interpersonal relationships.

A Guwahati-based college student pursuing her Masters in Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Bidisha started the #BleedwithDignity campaign on the technology platform Change.org, demanding that the Government of Assam install
biodegradable sanitary pad vending machines in all government schools across the state. Her petition on Change.org has already gathered support from over 90000 people and continues to grow.

Bidisha was selected in Change.org’s flagship program ‘She Creates Change’ having run successful online advocacy
campaigns, which were widely recognised. Through the #BleedwithDignity campaign; she organised and celebrated World Menstrual Hygiene Day, 2019 in Guwahati, Assam by hosting a wall mural by collaborating with local organisations. The initiative was widely covered by national and local media, and the mural was later inaugurated by the event’s chief guest Commissioner of Guwahati Municipal Corporation (GMC) Debeswar Malakar, IAS.

Sign up for the Youth Ki Awaaz Prime Ministerial Brief below