Kerala, a tiny southern state of India, has drawn both international and national attention due to its impressive performance in social development and demographic transition. Its human development indicators are the best in India and compared to some of the developed countries. Its achievement of demographic transition is rather unique and has earned worldwide accolades for Kerala. Its population development model is ideal for developing countries who are struggling with issues of population and poverty. Kerala amazes Western demographers because it achieved demographic transition despite poor economic development. Not surprising, because for a Western mind everything must correlate with economic development.
What is the development model of Kerala?
The answer is simple: Kerala is focused on its people and improving their quality of life. This is totally opposite to what the West thinks and prescribed: put economic growth at the center-stage and make people subordinate to it. This is flawed, as Nobel laureate Amartya Sen has often emphasised – put people at the center of development and develop economy along with social and political processes according to what they need. In fact, people need many more things other than economic growth; such as freedom to participate in social and political processes and activities, opportunity for spiritual growth, family life and relations, easy access to social support systems and quality health services, freedom from all forms of insecurities, clean environment, sufficient leisure time and so on.
Perhaps the most distinguishing feature of Kerala is the Female to Male sex ratio: According to the 2011 census, Kerala has 1084 females (up by 26 since 2001) for 1000 male against the national average of 940. In past hundred years, this has steadily improved. Even the most economically advanced states like Delhi, Punjab, Gujarat and Maharashtra don’t match Kerala in female-friendliness and women empowerment.
In the past decade, all districts of Kerala have shown improvement in the sex ratio. As per the 2011 data, the top 3 districts are Kannur (1133), Pathanamthitta (1129) and Kollam (1113) and even the worst districts have better figures: Idukki (1006), Ernakulam (1028), and Wayanad (1035).
Kerala’s also tops the literacy rate at 94% (male literacy (96%) and Female literacy (92%)) compared with the national average of 74% (Male 82%, female 65.5%).
Kerala is a Female Surplus State!!
Long Tradition of Girls’ Education
The Maharaja of Travancore established the first girl’s school in the 1850s. His example was taken up by neighboring kingdoms such as Cochin.
Demography of Kerala
The state of Kerala is wedged between the Arabian Sea to the west and the Western Ghats to the east. It covers only 1.18% of India’s landmass. Situated at the southwestern tip of India, it has Tamil Nadu and Karnataka as its neighboring states. Kerala’s coast runs 580 km in length, while the state itself varies from 35-120 km in width. Kerala is among the preferred destinations for nature loving tourists from across the world.
In the 2011 census, the population density of Kerala is 860 persons/sq km up from 819 in 2001, next only to Bihar (1106 up from 881) and West Bengal (1028 up from 903). The national average is 382 up from 324 ten years ago. In the State, The highest density of 1,508 persons per sq. km is reported from Thiruvananthapuram district while Idukki with 255 has the lowest density. The high density has played a major role in improving access to social services like schools and hospitals leading to improved development indicators.
A steadily aging population (13% people over 60 years compared with 8.2 in the country) and low birthrate (14.8 per 1,000 compared with national average of 22.1 ) make Kerala one of the few regions of the developing world to have undergone the “demographic transition. It is highest among the major states of India. The highest percent of elderly population falls in Alappuzha district.
Children in the age group 0-6 year are just about 10% and up to 14 years, are less than 25% of the total population, which is lowest among the major states of India. The drop out number of children is endangering the primary schools. More and more schools are turning uneconomical every year in Kerala. The school drop out rate is the state is less than 0.5% – the lowest in the country.
Kerala has the highest literacy rate (94%) and life expectancy (75.8 years; national average 65.5 years) in India. Its fertility rate is below sub-replacement level (at around 1.7) and the infant mortality rate (only around 10 deaths per 1,000 live births) is among the best in the country.
Over the past century, Kerala’s population increased by over five times from 6 million in 1901 to 33.4 million in 2011. Currently, it is the 12th populous state with slightly less than 3 percent population share. Its population compares with those of Canada and Iraq but is somewhat larger than populations of Afghanistan, Nepal, and Malaysia.
There has been a five per cent fall in population growth rate in the state in every succeeding census since 1971. The decadal population growth rate was 25% growth rate in 1971, reduced to 20% in 1981, 9.4% in 2001 and stands at 4.9% in 2011. If this trend continues, the growth rate in 2021 will be either zero or negative. The birth rate among all the communities has been declining. At present it is around 1.2 among Christians as against 1.4 among Hindus and 2.1 among Muslims.
The difference in the birth rate among different communities must show up in the overall state population composition. It is expected that the Christian population should be about 16% in 2011 down from 19.5% in 2001 and the Muslim community must have reached 25% as against 21% in 2001. In 2011, the Hindu community should be around 54% against 56% in 2001.
Women constitute 51.9 percent of the total population of the state and outnumber men by 1.3 million. Here also women outlive men.
Kerala has Lowest Infant Mortality Rate in India
A country’s population remains stable when the birth and death rates match. Demographic transition is the shift from a stable population with high birth/high death rates to a stable regime with low birth/low death rates. A society with high birth/death rates is clearly underdeveloped. When it advances in healthcare, education, sanitation and nutritional facilities, both birth and death rates fall because people realise the importance of smaller families and plan for it and aged people enjoy better health and live longer.
Western societies achieved this transition long ago due to their technological and economic advancement. Developing nations are now moving towards it and are at different stages of demographic transition. Countries take more or less time depending upon their policies and strategies. Age structure of the population changes during such transitions.
Demographic Transition in Kerala
In India the demographic transition has been relatively slow but steady. As a result, India was able to avoid adverse effects of too rapid changes in the number and age structure of the population, as is seen in China which abruptly reduced population by imposing the one-child policy.
Kerala has been setting an example of potentials of human development over last several decades. This beautiful tiny state has emerged far ahead in human development indicators, leaving behind even the economically advanced states like Gujarat and Maharashtra. It also has the lowest rate of population growth, achieved without coercive sterilization policies of family planning ministry. Kerala has the lowest crude death rate (around 6 per thousand), lowest infant mortality (around 10 per 1000 live births), highest life expectancy at birth (75 years) and highest literacy rate (94 percent).
Kerala attained replacement level fertility, or total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1, during early 1990s. Other states which achieved this feat in the following years are Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Maharashtra and Punjab.
Total Fertility Rate
Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average total number of children a woman will have her lifetime. Associated with total fertility rate is the concept of replacement rate which is achieved when, on an average, every woman gives birth to just one girl child in her lifetime. In order to do that she gives birth to just two children (TFR of 2.0), so that statistically one would be girl. It leads to population stabilisation – zero population growth.
In reality, to account for mortality of young women before they produce new offspring, the replacement level fertility is kept slightly above 2.0. In developed countries where healthcare facilities are good, it is taken as 2.1. In societies where child or adult death rates are higher, the replacement rate is kept around 2.3.
Currently, China’s TFR is 1.70 (similar to Kerala) and India’s about 2.7. China reached the replacement fertility level around the year 2000; it is expecting to see population stabilization by 2030. Population stabilization takes place about 30-35 years after it the replacement fertility has been reached; until them population continues to grow due to momentum. It is hoped that by 2020 India’s TFR would have fallen to replacement level.
To put things in perspective, here are some very high TFR nations: Niger (7.03), Mali (6.25), Somalia (6.17), Uganda (6.06), Zambia (5,81), and Afghanistan (5.54). Some very low TFR countries include Singapore (0.79), Taiwan (1.11), South Korea (1.24), and Japan (1.39). EU as a whole (1.58). The US (2.07) is hovering just below the replacement value of 2.1. World average is around 2.45 (down from 2.8 in 2002 and 5.0 in 1965).
Power of People Development
It is noteworthy that that Kerala achieved it despite a sluggish growth in economy – because normally economic growth has been known to curtail population growth. Sociologists attribute these achievements to Kerala’s better healthcare, high literacy rate, and better standard of living compared to other Indian states. Kerala’s human development indices — elimination of poverty, primary level education, and healthcare — are among the best in India.
Kerala’s healthcare system has garnered international acclaim, with UNICEF and the World Health Organization (WHO) designating Kerala the world’s first “baby-friendly state”. For example, more than 95% births in Kerala are hospital-delivered. The state also nurtures several traditional forms of medical practices – apart from Ayurveda, siddha, and Unani many endangered and endemic modes of traditional medicine, including kalari, marmachikitsa, and vishavaidyam are practiced in Kerala.
Experts tried to figure out which socio-cultural or developmental factors contributed significantly towards Kerala’s demographic transition. People often point to high literacy as the most dominant factor leading towards lower fertility. Noted scholar D. Radhadevi examined the correlation between education and fertility and compared the fertility parameters of Kerala and Madhya Pradesh. She wondered why fertility is fairly high even among women graduates in Madhya Pradesh and fairly low even among illiterates of Kerala? She concluded that the spread of formal education among women can’t by itself bring about a drastic change in their reproductive behavior.
Another researcher, Zachariah argued that in case of Kerala the high population density and the rather homogeneous spread of population (without the drastic village-town divide) helped develop infrastructure of schools and healthcare facilities in such a way that they were easily accessible to the whole population. In Kerala 95 percent population has been living in such settlement pattern. This pattern eliminated the lopsided development in other states where facilities get concentrated in or around cities and rural areas are left behind both in facilities as well as easy access.
In addition, rather low or absence of gender bias in Kerala should also be given credit. When women are free of male dominance they are in a better position to control their fertility. This empowerment must get as much credit as other physical facilities and family planning programs.
The Population Pyramid of Kerala is Distinctly Different
Kerala Martial Art
Praise for Kerala
The case of Kerala is unique because the demographic transition was achieved in the absence of a high level economic development as prescribed in the theory of demographic transition, and observed in the West in the late 19th and early 20thcenturies. Kerala’s human development model of fertility transition appears better suited to developing countries which are struggling with poverty and population stabilization issues.
Noted author and environmentalist, Bill McKibben, described as “the world’s best green journalist” by Time magazine, summarized Kerala’s unusual socioeconomic and demographic situation in these words:
“Kerala, a state in India, is a bizarre anomaly among developing nations, a place that offers real hope for the future of the Third World. Though not much larger than Maryland, Kerala has a population as big as California’s and a per capita annual income of less than $300. But its infant mortality rate is very low, its literacy rate among the highest on Earth, and its birthrate below America’s and falling faster. Kerala’s residents live nearly as long as Americans or Europeans. Though mostly a land of paddy-covered plains, statistically Kerala stands out as the Mount Everest of social development; there’s truly no place like it.”
Lessons from Kerala
Question: What can Kerala teach other developing nations?
Answer: People development and women empowerment are the best contraceptives in the world!
Kerala demonstrated that demographic transition, and hence population stabilization, can also be achieved through people development. It proved many Western thinkers wrong who believed that economic development along can bring about demographic transition, as they had observed in their countries.
It also highlighted that imposing smaller family size is NOT at all required to reduce population growth, as China has done. Kerala also highlights the role of gender equality and women empowerment. Coercive state policies, such as the One Child Policy of China, combined with gender prejudice against women, has led to a highly disturbed sex ratio creating several serious social issues. China already has a surplus of over 30 million men under the age of 20 and adds about one million “extra male child” each year. This scenario is loaded with potential for serious consequences in the future and is showing up in increasing sex related crimes and women trafficking from neighboring North Korea and Myanmar. Kerala avoided all such side-effects of societal distortions. Read, for example, The Dark Side of One Child Policy of China.
Indian government should learn from Kerala (certainly not China) and shift the focus of family planning efforts to socio-cultural issues like raising age at marriage, women education, gender equality and women empowerment. Incidentally, Nobel laureate Amartya Sen’s capability approach to development also focuses on people development as the right sustainable growth model.
Acknowledgement
This article is inspired by a one day roundtable held in New Delhi (Jan, 2011) on “Population and family Planning: Contemporary Challenges & Opportunities”, organized by the National Coalition on Population Stabilization, Family Planning & Reproductive Rights.
https://soapboxie.com/world-politics/Population-Development-What-Kerala-can-Teach-India-and-China