Recently in India, a big political development has been the Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP) severing ties with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government over the issue of granting special status to Andhra Pradesh.
The party has also advocated moving a no-trust motion against the BJP government. This spells more trouble for the BJP after losing the Uttar Pradesh and Bihar bypolls.
The poll analyses have predicted that TDP’s exit from the NDA may affect the 2019 general elections. Since its loss in the by-polls, the BJP may be eyeing for strong alliances but now they have lost their hold on Andhra Pradesh as TDP has taken a stand against them along with the YSR Congress. As TDP is one of the strongest parties in south India, this marks a heavy loss for the BJP.
TDP’s exit from the NDA may have consequences for the next Lok Sabha elections. The fact that a strong regional party has shown unhappiness with the BJP may influence other regional parties to also rebel against the BJP. This spells trouble for the ruling party. There are also rumours of the TDP leading a united front for the 2019 elections. If other regional political parties like Asom Gana Parishad of Assam, Biju Janata Dal of Oddisa, Shiv Sena of Maharashtra, etc also follow the steps of the TDP and join the united front, this could be a big political game changer. I am not sure what else can be predicted at this time but TDP’s move can certainly influence other regional political parties. Here, I am not sure about all this but this can be predicted this time & one can say that TDP’s moves can influence other regional political parties attention.
Now, one may say that the NDA is not in good health as regional parties are starting to break away from it. Earlier, the Shiv Sena had withdrawn its support to the BJP. The Shiv Sena has also criticised the Modi government over issues like note ban, GST and the Punjab National Bank (PNB) scam. The party has also shown their support to the recent farmers’ march in Maharastra. The Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has also disagreed with the BJP over issues like Article 35A and Article 370. Some of the BJP’s other allies are the Naga People’s Front of Nagaland, Bihar’s Rastriya Lok Samta Party and Hindustani Awam Morcha. BJP has more than 20 allies in the NDA. An Unhealthy relation with its allies will spell trouble for the BJP in the next elections. So they should be taking care of their allies.
However, Chandrababu Naidu is a veteran Indian politician who knows the political scenario. In 1996, he managed a team of 10 or so political parties. Already, the Left, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and the YSR Congress have shown their support for the no-trust motion.
In 2014, the BJP had secured 281 seats in the general elections. With the TDP breaking away, the number of seats have reduced to around 275. 272 is the magic number in the Lok Sabha and therefore any party has to touch this number to come to power. As the elections are getting closer, it will be interesting to see if the parties within the NDA stick together or fall apart.
The BJP party also has less opportunity in southern states of India like Telengana, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. What the TDP’s absence means for the BJP can only be realised in 2019.