A reverse trend can be clearly seen in the recent by-election results in several states as compared to the assembly election of the same state. The party in ruling failed to safeguard its seats in the by-elections. Although by-polls are a poor predictor of the outcome of a general election but the recent by-polls became significant because they fall into a larger pattern that is slowly emerging.
Although BJP has conquered many new states in the last few years, its popularity has diminished in the states where it has been ruling. In Gujarat despite a 22-year old reign, the party faced a major dent in its seat share from the opposition.
Similarly states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh where the party is ruling the state, it fails to save its seats in by-polls. BJP faced a major setback in recent by-polls of UP where the party lost its stronghold seat of CM Yogi Adityanath in Gorakhpur to SP and BSP alliance, also it failed to safeguard Deputy CM Keshav Prashad Maurya’s seat in Phulpur as well.
The BSP and SP alliance wrested two important Lok Sabha seats from the ruling BJP. These results are a sign of the rise of those parties who practice regional politics. Also, the results sends a message to opposition parties that only a grand alliance will be able to take on the might of BJP in 2019.
On one hand BJP won in three Northeast states with five Lok Sabha(LS) seats, on the other hand it lost three LS seats in by-elections of UP and Bihar. The voters are sending a clear signal for the opposition parties to form an alliance and also to BJP that in 2019 General elections its not going to be a cakewalk victory for the party.