History has always been witness to the fact that a systemic overhaul is the ultimate ramification of widespread mismanagement leading to societal upheavals. A liberal and shackle-free society is a breeding ground for the free citizenry. At times, people are faced with situations which are essentially threatening to the existence of free thoughts and actions. Entrusting an entity with excessive power is bound to turn that entity into a whimsical and abusive behemoth.
It is an intrinsic socio-political fallout of the public being manipulated and manoeuvred to such a proportion, that they become mere pawns with virtually no power. This is the nemesis of any free-thinking society. Majoritarianism is intrinsically harmful, disruptive and reductive. Repeated parking of public faith in that entity leads to the chauvinistic assertion of the majority, which ultimately results in the public itself being reduced to puppets.
In the India of 2018, history seems to be in the making as a juggernaut of a political force is perpetually bulldozing basic rights of individuals, fanning communitarian hatred and indulging in the ignominious elimination of political cooperation. The present regime in India was ushered in 2014, and the election marked the end of the political coalition at the Centre for at least the next 5 years. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the alliance led by the single largest party in the legislature, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), lost its importance and significance as the public delivered a decisive electoral majority to the BJP alone.
In the days post-election, the BJP, pillared upon its central figure, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, rode on the winds of change blowing across the country. They slowly made inroads into almost every state assembly in the country, securing its position of invincible dominance in India, and dealing death blow to cooperative federalism.
Four years down the line from the historic mandate, the BJP today rules 21 out of 29 states and wields a massive vice-grip on 73% of the country. This overhaul of the participatory democracy model of the country’s polity has been pivotal in empowering fringe groups which had sprouted under the canopy of the BJP-RSS combined. These groups are now unhindered in their rollercoaster ride to demolish the plurality of the Indian society, and what’s more, they have the temerity to indulge in grotesque deeds because they now have the backing of the invincible mammoth.
Uttar Pradesh, the state with the largest population, is also the state which is the sine qua non when it comes to deciding the fate of national politics. In fact, in cases other than in which the regional satraps have called the shots, the party holding Uttar Pradesh has gone on to sit on the New Delhi masnad. It is such an important and politically volatile state that the mavericks of Indian politics depend upon bastions in Uttar Pradesh to secure their Lower House presence. PM Narendra Modi is the MP for Varanasi and Rae Bareilly and Amethi have historically been Congress strongholds.
Even if the Congress is routed from the entire country, the top two titans of Congress will continue to win these two constituencies. Despite the headwinds faced by Congress due to the massive popularity of Modi, BJP candidate Smriti Irani failed to defeat an unpopular and low spirited Rahul Gandhi in Amethi. Presently, the BJP dispensation in Uttar Pradesh, led by Yogi Adityanath, is steadfast and revelling in glory, but is not devoid of worries, especially after the loss of the Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha constituencies. These two constituencies are especially important because these are the ones vacated by the current CM and deputy CM. The loss of these two bastions to the SP-BSP regional combination can spell trouble for BJP. They hint at the decaying faith in the party in public minds. Bowing down to regional players would be utterly shameful for a national party which cruised into power with such gargantuan and unprecedented numbers in 2014. It would only mean a steady receding of support from the very core of their four-year-old victory.
The federal powers, including the Trinamool Congress (TMC), the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Telangana Rashtriya Samity (TRS), the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and some other regional fronts, are already posing a tough challenge for the BJP with all their scathing criticisms backed by their numbers in the central legislature. Politically active Tamil actor Prakash Raj, who is influential enough to swing public support in or against someone’s favour, has also lent his support to the proposition of a federal front. TMC has the second highest number of Lok Sabha MPs among regional parties, only after the Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK). If these formidable powers unite to form a third front, it would be a challenging opposition to the BJP, which hitherto seemed to be unstoppable, but not anymore.
The immediate factor which has aggrieved the Telugu parties is the denial by the Govt. Of India to grant Andhra Pradesh the special status. Instead, the central dispensation wanted to placate the TDP with a ‘special package’. The special status agitation becomes especially significant because Andhra needs to build a capital anew after the erstwhile capital Hyderabad went to Telangana. Hyderabad accounted for much of Andhra’s income, especially after it saw the cyber boom and became known by the moniker Cyberabad. With TDP exiting the NDA, and other important South parties like AIADMK still in the lurch, the current juncture could prove to be a decisive factor for the 2019 polls.
However, thumping victories in Tripura and Nagaland, albeit through local alliances, marked BJP’s inroads into the northeast after the debacle of Arunachal Pradesh, thus serving as morale boosters. Penetrating Karnataka, the strongest Congress bastion currently, would be a tough challenge for team Modi.
Thinning of public support, caustic criticism from the liberal brigade, disruptive economic policies, federal opposition – all these crucial pawns are together posing a check to the BJP’s ‘king’. It is high time it started considering itself vulnerable and worked towards saving its numbers in the 2019 general elections.