Parliamentary elections in India could increase the possibility of communal violence, if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stresses on fighting them on ‘Hindu nationalist themes’, a report tabled by US Intelligence on Tuesday states.
The annual worldwide threat assessment report was tabled in the US Congress on Tuesday by Director of US Intelligence Daniel Coats. He also deposed before the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Listing out possible areas of threat in the South Asian region, the report says that South Asian states are likely to face more challenges in 2019 because of “Afghanistan’s presidential election in mid-July and the Taliban’s large-scale attacks, Pakistan’s recalcitrance in dealing with militant groups, and Indian elections that risk communal violence.”
Warning of a possibility of an increase in communal violence during the upcoming elections in India if BJP focusses on fighting it with a Hindutva focus, the report states, “BJP policies during Modi’s first term have deepened communal tensions in some BJP-governed states, and Hindu nationalist state leaders might view a Hindu-nationalist campaign as a signal to incite low-level violence to animate their supporters. Increasing communal clashes could alienate Indian Muslims and allow Islamist terrorist groups in India to expand their influence.”
The report also cites “the continued growth and development of Pakistan and India’s nuclear weapons” as a factor that could “increase the risk of a nuclear security incident in South Asia”.
“We judge that cross-border terrorism, firing across the Line of Control (LoC), divisive national elections in India, and Islamabad’s perception of its position with the United States relative to India will contribute to strained India-Pakistan relations at least through May 2019, the deadline for the Indian election, and probably beyond,” the report adds.
The report also warns that militant groups supported by Pakistan “will continue to take advantage of their safe haven” in the country to “plan and conduct attacks in India and Afghanistan, including against US interests”.