The reason clichés are thrown around so often is, that they are true. Case in point being the English proverb, ‘Don’t put all your eggs in one basket’. This needs to be reiterated to the present opposition in the context of the recent statement of the DMK chief MK Stalin, where he proposed Congress president Rahul Gandhi as the PM candidate for 2019 elections. “Rahul has got the ability to defeat fascist Modi government. Let’s strengthen Rahul Gandhi’s hands, let’s save the country,” asserted Stalin. Ignoring the obvious hyperbole, this statement needs to be analyzed objectively, if the opposition wishes to avoid the ramifications of such a move.
First and foremost, it should be made clear that India follows a Parliamentary model of representation. The country is divided into a number of small electoral units or constituencies. Each constituency elects its representatives or Members of Parliament (MPs). The party with a majority in the lower house of the Parliament or the Lok Sabha can nominate the leader of the MPs as the Prime Minister of the country. This system is different from a Presidential system of government, where two candidates contest each other in the elections. The candidate with a greater number of popular votes wins and becomes the head of the government.
We, in India, do not, and I emphasize do not, vote directly for the Prime Minister. The Indian race for power is fought at an individual constituency level. You ideally should not vote on the performance of the Prime Minister or the party ideology, but the performance of the incumbent MP. In this system, the local aspirations and problems which need to be addressed, are raised at the national level. In our highly diverse country, where we have every possible geographical, cultural and linguistic variation, a single person cannot possibly govern the whole country.
Thus, declaring the Prime Ministerial candidate before elections is antithetical to the spirit of our constitution and the nature of our diversity. The current governing party, BJP, however, prefers to contest elections in a presidential-style, by declaring a face going into the elections. This style suits them as they can rally around huge support around a single man in the election frenzy. The opposition needs to refrain itself from this tendency for a Presidential style of elections.
Further, even at the peak of Narendra Modi’s popularity in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP could only garner 31% of the national vote share. This goes on to show the importance of regional parties in today’s day and age of fractured politics. Small interest groups dominate the present discourse. The BJP in the 2014 elections came to power because it was able to give a narrative which appealed to people nationwide. However, presently, its performance has left large sections of the population unsatisfied, to say the least. The other, pan-India party, Congress, has still been unable to give a counter-narrative. With less than four months remaining for the elections, it seems highly unlikely that it would be successful in doing so. In the absence of formidable opposition, the voters are likely to vote for the BJP as the “least bad” option.
Therefore, it becomes imperative to consolidate the regional parties on a single platform of the Mahagathbandhan or the Grand Alliance, for making an impact in the upcoming elections. BSP and SP have already joined hands in UP leaving Congress alone in the state. Apart from that, every major player in the regional politics airing their unease on the suggestion of naming Rahul Gandhi as the Prime Minister going into the polls should act as an alarm against any such decision. Mamata Banerjee’s TMC, N Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, CPM, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal among others have rejected this suggestion outrightly.
Congress needs to also respect this view and not rush into declaring the Prime Minister candidate. Former NDA ally and the latest addition to the Mahagathbandhan N Chandrababu Naidu recently went into Telengana state assembly elections with Congress. He too made his unease known on Stalin’s suggestion. Congress needs people like Chandrababu Naidu, if it dreams of defeating the BJP. Opposition unity should be the first priority of the present principal opposition party.
Moreover, in the present scheme of things, the declaration of a Prime Ministerial candidate from the opposition would eventually play into the BJP’s narrative. BJP has been out, touting the TINA factor and convincing people that ‘There is No Alternative’ to Narendra Modi. It has also been largely successful in doing so. The general perception that between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, the balance tilts in Narendra Modi’s favour. Rahul Gandhi has presently not acquired a stature in national politics to be able to challenge Modi. It would be disastrous for the Congress in trying to pit one against the other.
For now, Congress and all other parties that are willing to counter to BJP in 2019 elections should only focus on building a strong and credible narrative on relevant issues. Further, Congress should strive to keep the opposition united, as it is still, and perhaps, the only party with a pan-India footprint. As far as the question of a Prime Minister is concerned, Arun Shourie often quotes the former Prime Minister Chandrashekhar as saying, “The people have a way of solving problems that leaders are unable to do. And when the people strike, they don’t just slap, they deliver a body blow.” Let us believe him on that.