Happy New Year and Happy Sankranti to all! The state election results just before the new year brought cheers to the Opposition camp, especially the Indian National Congress. The win in the three Hindi heartland states for the Congress under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi has brought back the long lost hope, energy and the belief that BJP can be defeated in their bastions and also an alternative can be forged in the national elections in 2019. But with all the inherent contradictions within opposition parties and colliding ambitions of several regional players, can an alternative be forged and given shape to take on the still very formidable BJP camp? Let us analyze the possibilities and equations.
Is A Mahagathbandhan The Answer To Modi OR Is It State-Specific Alliances?
In Karnataka, after election results, we had seen the above photo op which looked like the entire opposition camp was getting ready to form a pre-poll Mahagathbandhan. Well it was short lived when Congress decided to go all alone in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh as they could not strike a deal with BSP and SP due to differences in seats demanded. Congress felt that they had it in them to fight alone and defeat BJP convincingly, which they managed in Chhattisgarh, where it was a thumping victory, and in MP and Rajasthan it managed a simple majority.
On expected lines, BSP and SP announced that they are keeping Congress out of the Lok Sabha alliance in UP yesterday. Well, is it then a damper in Opposition unity? Not necessarily, as Rahul Gandhi mentioned in one of his recent speeches that where Congress is strong and No. 1, it is going to go alone, and where it is a minor player, it is ready to play second fiddle to strong regional players.
So it is very clear that a pre-poll Mahagathbandhan is not realistic. State wide alliances with state specific calculations seem to be the way forward. So let us look at each state specifically.
Tamil Nadu:– DMK-Left-Congress alliance is a done deal and win-win for all. This alliance is set to sweep the state due to the heavy anti-incumbency against AIADMK and BJP.
Kerala:– It is a direct fight between CPI (M) led LDF vs Congress led UDF. BJP is trying to gain mileage by stoking up communal tensions on the Sabarimala issue. But overall it will be either LDF gains or UDF gains. Both are anti-BJP and will eventually strengthen the opposition camp.
Bihar:– RJD-Congress-Left-Khushwaha-Manjhi have formed a gathbandhan. This alliance is set to challenge NDA in Bihar with BJP and JD (U).
UP:– SP-BSP have announced an alliance without Congress. So this alliance between the two principal regional partners in UP is bound to create a huge dent in BJP’s votes and bring down their 2014 tally by more than half or make it even lower.
Maharashtra:– Congress-NCP have forged and announced their alliance. This gives them a clear advantage over the ongoing war between BJP and Shiv Sena.
Karnataka:– Congress-JD (S) are almost sealing the deal and this creates a formidable challenge to BJP.
Telangana:– KCR’s TRS is going strong and after the recent state election win, it is advantage TRS. Congress-CPI and TDP have forged an alliance which, if continued, could give a few MP seats to the Mahakutumi. KCR is as of now going equidistant from both Congress and BJP and could go either way, depending on which one emerges as single largest party.
Andhra Pradesh:– TDP has cleverly distanced and broken alliance with BJP at a critical juncture due to heavy anti-BJP sentiment in Andhra, due to the special status promise being punctured by BJP. With Chandrababu Naidu positioning himself as one of the primary cornerstones of the Opposition alliance, TDP-Congress are set to go together and this may give them an edge over Jagan’s YSR Congress.
Hindi Heartland states (Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, Himachal, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Punjab):–Congress is all set to take on BJP alone in these states and the wind is clearly blowing against BJP as seen in the latest election results due to heavy farmer distress and huge unemployment rates.
Bengal:– Trinamool Congress is all set to go alone and is in a strong position to maximize gains. TMC is an important ally of the Congress in a post poll scenario. The Left Front hopes to retain their No. 2 position by stitching an understanding with Congress and limit the BJP to a No. 3 place in Bengal.
The Northeast:– Congress will try to retain their stronghold in the Northeast, but it is advantage BJP and they will look to maximize their seats in the Northeast.
Odisha:– BJD is going all alone, and neither Congress nor BJP are in any position to challenge Naveen Patnaik, although both are looking at increasing their Lok Sabha tally.
J&K:– NC-Congress alliance is set to make major gains after the major collapse in BJP-PDP alliance and heavy anti-establishment feeling that is growing amongst Kashmiris.
Rahul Gandhi: The Primary Challenger To Modi-led BJP ?
The story of 2018 is undoubtedly the evolution of Rahul Gandhi as announced by India Today Magazine as the “Newsmaker Of The Year 2018”.
Rahul Gandhi has emerged stronger, wittier and smarter and the main challenger to Modi from Congress. He ran a smart campaign in MP, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan by striking an intelligent combination of temple visits on one hand, thus ensuring Hindus are not alienated and Congress is not seen as a party of minorities alone, and taking up farmers’ issues, unemployment and Rafale scam. The wins in the Hindi heartland have rejuvenated the Congress party and cadres and have removed any doubts whatsoever in the minds of Congress workers on Rahul Gandhi as a leader.
So are the faceless Mahagathbandhan or state-specific alliances good enough to beat Modi and the well-oiled BJP machine?
NO. Remember Indira Gandhi’s famous slogan:– “Woh kehte hain Indira hatao, mai kehti hoon garibi hatao.” If opposition makes it “Modi vs. Rest”, it will further strengthen the Modi and BJP narrative of a strong, stable government. Voters like stability and clear alternatives. So as DMK leader Stalin proclaimed intelligently, let us install a new PM in Delhi and we invite Rahul Gandhi as prime ministerial candidate of UPA – the United Progressive Alliance, a clear message goes a long way in convincing voters that if BJP falls, there will not be anarchy and a “khichidi sarkar” .
A Rahul Gandhi-led Congress and a Congress led UPA and Rahul Gandhi as PM candidate ensures that Team Rahul is strong. This includes all pre-poll partners of Congress like DMK, JD (S), Left Front, NCP, NC, RJD, TDP, which are on a strong wicket. The post-poll partners like SP, BSP, TMC, etc. can come along once UPA is in a strong position and has gained enough momentum. Let us hope the secular, democratic forces gain strength and we have a new government at the centre in 2019 under UPA with Rahul Gandhi as the PM!