The recent attack on the CRPF convoy at Pulwama, in which over 44 soldiers were martyred, has made the Modi govt. take a series of substantive diplomatic and military measures against the hostile Pakistan, which has nurtured the culpable terror group Jaish-e-Mohammed ever since its inception.
The diplomatic measures – like withdrawal of MFN status, decision to divert water from 3 eastern rivers, approaching the UNSC to list Masood Azhar in its 1267 sanctions committee, hiking customs duty to over 200 percent, and the suspension of Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service – have received considerable appreciation, yet a strong military response is what the compatriots are demanding. And evidently nothing less than a potent military strike, will make up for this terrible loss.
But, apart from that, there are some other methods – that doesn’t involve the military directly — that India can adopt, to counter and crumble Pakistan in the long term. It’s a known fact, that India has the ability to defeat Pakistan in a conventional war, but a war like that will have disastrous economic and humanitarian ramifications for both the countries. That’s why an alternate strategy by India should be framed, something similar to what Pakistan has been doing in Kashmir since 1990s.
Pakistan’s support to insurgent groups in India
Pakistan has been sponsoring terrorism and militancy against India, ever since 1956. During that period, Pakistan’s ISI was responsible for training the followers of Phinzo, the Naga hostile leader, at training camps in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh); it also provided them safe sanctuaries from which they could operate in Indian territory. In 1960s, ISI further aided the Mizo National Front (MNF) in the same manner.
However in Kashmir, insurgency began in the summer of 1991. Militant groups like Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) have been active in the Valley since then — with monetary and weaponry support from ISI and the military.
And despite, numerous calls by India and the international community for acting against such militant groups; Pakistan has not cooperated in any manner. It has even perpetually denied its involvement in their militant activities. Just recently, after the Pulwama attack, Imran Khan in an edited video (which apparently the Pakistani military edited) said that Pakistan had no role in it.
Proxy War by India: Supporting insurgent groups in Pakistan
So now, since Pakistan has decided to not act against its home grown militant groups, India must wage proxy wars, in a similar manner, in order to give Pakistan a taste of its own medicine.
Majority of Balochs are opposed to being a part of Pakistan. The BLA (a separatist group) has been demanding an independent state separate from Pakistan and Iran. Since 2000, it has claimed killing over 25000 ethnic Punjabis, Pashtuns and Sindhis in Balochistan.
Similarly ‘Sindhudesh’ is an idea of a separate state for Sindhis, promulgated by G.M. Syed. After the 1971 war, he said that in the next Indo-Pak war, Sindhis must welcome Indian Army as liberators.
A sense of liberation has been prevalent in large section of Pakistanis for a long time. Since Pakistan is a fragmented society, it has not been able to coalesce, all the ethnic groups in order to form a strong union. And thus, insurgency has made the Pakistani govt. and the military lose excessive financial resources.
Hence, if India decides to bankroll these rebel movements, the Pakistani military will be forced to divert its manpower and resources to contain the rebellion. The resulting turmoil will drive out domestic and foreign investors, which will eventually crumble the already crisis-stricken Pakistani economy. And once this happens, Pakistan will have no option left but to act against the militant groups, or to lose control over its territory.
India has done this before. In 1971, RAW had brilliantly managed to train East Pakistani Bengali Freedom Fighters in clandestine training camps and to organize psychological warfare campaign against the Pakistani rulers. RAW was very young at that time, and yet it did a great job. So imagine today, what the RAW will do.
India must act on this front. Security Analyst Amarjeet Singh has explained in Indian Defense Review, “A proxy war by Pakistan in two Indian provinces merely affects less than 10 per cent of all Indian provinces, but a proxy war by India in two Pakistani provinces can affect 40 per cent of Pakistan.”
Since 1947, India’s approach with Pakistan has always been defensive, allowing Pakistan to act first, and then react. But as Narendra Modi says “Ye ek Naya Hindustan hai”; so a new India must become offensive, and act in a manner, that will slowly dissipate Pakistan.
Jai Hind!