In India, psephologists have been conducting opinion polls and predicting elections for over 30 years now. It is the time of elections again, and the media houses are muscling up to conduct opinion and exit polls.
An opinion poll is a pre-election survey to gather voters’ views on a range of election-related issues. An exit poll, on the other hand, is conducted immediately after people have voted, and assesses the support for political parties and their candidates. However, both kinds of polls are controversial on the ground that the agency conducting them is perceived to be biased.
Media and the Election Commission of India (EC) are usually at opposite ends when it comes to exit polls. From time to time, the EC exercises its power under section 126(1)(b) of Representation of Peoples Act, 1951, to ban the exit polls. The commission recently invoked Section 188 of IPC (Indian penal code), which criminalizes disobedience of order of public officials and institutions. On November 12, 2018, the Commission imposed a month-long ban on holding exit polls in the 5 poll-bound states- Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Mizoram and, Telengana.
Why Is The Election Commission Against Opinion And Exit Polls?
The EC held its first consultation with political parties on exit and opinion polls on December 22, 1997. In the meeting, representatives of most national and state parties said these polls were unscientific and biased. Political parties complained that these polls were sponsored by the opposition parties and this may have a distorted effect on the mentality of the voters.
Reasons Why The Bans Are Only Limited To Exit Polls So Far?
In 2004, the EC approached the Law Ministry, along with the support of six national parties and 18 state parties, with a proposal for the amendment of the Representation of the People’s Act to provide for a ban on both exit and opinion polls during a period specified by the Commission. The recommendation was accepted in part, and in February 2010, restrictions were imposed only on exit polls through the introduction of Section 126(A) of the Act.
Subsequently, in November 2013, the EC held consultations with political parties to revive its demand to restrict pre-election opinion polls as well. It was supported by all political parties with the exception of the BJP. The suggestion was further forwarded to the Law Ministry, but no action has been taken on it so far.
Arguments Against Banning The Polls:
- In a democracy, every voter has the right to express his/her opinions. Banning the polls will indirectly suggest curbing people’s opinion, which goes against the spirit of a democratic country.
- It will also curb the independence of press as the fourth pillar of democracy.
The Necessity Of These Polls:
A person favouring a candidate or a party, does so solely because of his own reasons; but knowing others’ opinions with regards to a candidate or a party, through opinion polls, may make him reconsider, or at least ponder over his decision before casting his vote.
The candidate too can restructure his election agenda by understanding the needs of the people of his constituency, which the erstwhile legislator may have failed to fulfill. However, an adulterated opinion poll can overshadow the bright side of the opinion polls.
Way Forward:
Restrictions should be placed on who can conduct and publish opinion polls. In the European Society for Opinion and Market Research (ESOMAR), and the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), there are some professional and ethical guidelines which the market researchers follow to publish the polls. These guidelines can be followed in order to resolve the concerns in India.