The countdown has begun. In less than a week, the 2019 Lok Sabha election is about to start, and all bets and predictions are almost coming to a close. The effect of the Balakot air strikes is still afresh in the back of our minds. The BJP is still favored to form the next government, but there are questions unanswered. There are three states that are crucial: Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar.
The BJP lost in Chhattisgarh and are discussing the reasons behind the loss. As far as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are considered none of the parties got a clear majority in Dec 2018 elections. The SP-BSP-RLD gathbandhan is a serious threat to the BJP. Firstly, there is going to be an increase in the vote share by Congress from 7.6% in 2014 to over 12%, possibly by swallowing up or devouring SP-BSP’s vote share.
Secondly, Shivpal Yadav’s Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party, with tactful, implied and shrewd support from SP leaders loyal to Mulayam Singh Yadav, will also garner and accumulate SP votes in key seats. Thirdly, there is a likelihood that the SP-BSP cadres may not necessarily support in the seats that they have had to surrender to their ally in the gathbandhan. And lastly, SP and BSP votes are not necessarily exchangeable, nor interchangeable.
If we look back, in 2014 there was a huge Modi wave, but it’s unlikely so this time. The BJP has dwindled its seat adjustments in four important states: Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh Rajasthan, and Gujarat. In 2014, it won an impressive 88 out of 91 Lok Sabha seats in these states. That number will likely go down this year.
Besides consolidating the Congress party’s position, president Rahul Gandhi has managed to upset potential allies – AAP in Delhi, the Left in West Bengal and Kerala, and the BSP in Uttar Pradesh. It is his second choice of contesting against the Left in Kerala’s minority-dominated Wayanad. It is important to remember that Rahul’s primary objective is not to win the 2019 Lok Sabha election – but to make sure the BJP doesn’t.
Another important problem of the BJP is south India. Except in Karnataka – where it has some significance, there is no impressive track record in the five states of the South which collectively sends 129 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Because of the Sabarimala temple row which is fresh in the minds of the people, and despite the fact that they have received an increase in vote share, the BJP is, however, unlikely to pick up a seat.
In Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu local and regional interests predominantly overshadow national issues. The BJP’s best hope is to form a post-poll allies alliance among K. Chandrashekar Rao’s TRS, Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSRCP, and the fractious AIADMK with Rajinikanth playing a crucial role playing a friendly and supportive hand. The BJD in Orissa is a very strong political opponent and the BJP will have to work hard to make any sufficient inroads. West Bengal is going to be tough for BJP especially against Mamata Banerji.
In a recent diplomatic move, Priyanka Gandhi is using all tactical and strategical means to counteract Mayawati and try and win the 2022 UP Assembly election. She is also planning to equip and modernize Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan, founder of the Bhim Army, to develop a strategic young Dalit base. It is high time that tough lessons are learned especially from the way BJP broke its Goa ally MGF and which had severed all political ties. This is a standing example of what the opposition and allies can expect as the 38-day long Lok Sabha election unfolds from April 11 to May 19.
Lastly, it is important to keep in mind the tactful and shrewd lessons learned from Sun Tzu, the Chinese kingpin of deception, and the Italian master of subterfuge Machiavelli, who has caused dynasties to collapse and brought decades of alien occupation which are important lessons to be learned. There have been various schemes and programs designed for generating work, tackle unemployment, and poverty which rely on an increased private sector presence, providing social measures, healthcare, social upliftment, teaching, education, nutrition and support to backward areas and vulnerable groups. Perhaps we have just begun to learn and unlearn, and all said and done, this is undoubtedly the most unpredictable general election in decades.