Soon after the announcement of Lok Sabha election dates by Election Commission of India in Jammu and Kashmir, the valley is yet again witnessing an abrupt rise in political activities all across the three Lok Sabha seats. This time the competition is going to be tough as well as interesting, particularly in north Kashmir which is considered to be a politically highly active zone among all three. With new faces and new parties into the race, this season of elections is going to be worth following.
Let’s try to understand each and every possibility with respect to each political parties and their nominates candidates in all the three parliamentary constituencies one by one.
North
North Kashmir is considered to be the most politically active zone among all the three seats by the political experts. North Kashmir comprises of Baramulla, Kupwara and Bandipora districts with a large chunk of the population eligible for voting. This belt of the Kashmir has always been important in deciding the political careers of people and the overall impact on the larger political change in the valley. There has always been significant polling percentage in the parliamentary, assembly or recently conducted local bodies elections.
The north is the home to who’s who of Kashmir politics and this is one of the reasons for the larger percentage of voting in comparison to other parts of the valley. The area is highly diverse and ethnically dynamic and constitutes almost every community, be it the Gujjars, Bakerwal community near the LoC in Uri, the Sheena speaking community in Gurez, the Sikh community in Baramulla as well as Kashmiri Hindu Pandits in some parts of Pattan.
Within the majority of the Muslim Sections of society, there is also a considerable number of the Shia population in the area which makes the area politically vibrant. Therefore, it would be fair to say that the sub-region has always had every single reason for being the hotbed of political activities ahead of the elections, despite the poll boycott called by the separatists.
Talking about the nominated candidates by different political parties, both traditional parties and newly formed regional parties there lies conformity of distinct origin. The National Conference which holds a major impact on the region has fielded Mohammad Akbar Lone, one of the senior members of the party and former MLA from the Sonawari belt. The other grand party and also the former ruling party PDP has introduced Abdul Qayoom Wani, former president of EJAK teachers association, who recently made a switch to politics.
Similarly, Sajad Gani Lone’s People’s Conference(PC) has nominated former IGP Raja Aijaz Ali who before joining PC, lost assembly elections with a PDP ticket in 2014 state elections. Another big rival is the chairman of Awami Ittihad Party(AIP), Er. Rashid who for the first time is contesting for the parliamentary elections from north Kashmir and giving a tough fight to rival parties including some of the senior parties and political candidates. At last, the national based congress party has come up with Saifuddin Soz who has been the member of parliament from the same north belt, four times from NC’S ticket before joining the Congress.
Overall, the political drama in north Kashmir is going to be very interesting, as there will be a tough competition between the candidates.
South
Unlike North, South Kashmir will predictively witness low polling rate. The reasons for such speculations are the growing number of militancy and decreasing popularity of mainstream politics, as well as political leaders, post-Burhan episode in 2016. South has been and continues to be the hotbed of militancy and anti-India sentiments. There has been a violent circle of continuous killings of both armed guerrillas and civilians in various incidents like encounters, stone pelting, etc. Although during the 2014 assembly elections, South Kashmir participated with a distinct vigor, the recent Panchayati elections saw a cold response with negligible voting.
South candidates include PDP’s chairman and former CM Mehbooba Mufti herself. NC’s Hasnain Masoodi a former judge and Zafar Ali. Congress’s Ghulam Ahmad Mir and BJP’s Sofi Mohmad Yousuf. Despite these, some independent candidates are also in the race like Sanjay Kumar Dhar of Manav Adhikar Party, Shams Khwaja, Imtiyaz Ahmad rather, Mohammad Wani, Riyaz Bhat and an independent female candidate Dr. Ridwana Sanam.
Central :
Central Kashmir constitutes three districts of Srinagar, Ganderbal, and Budgam respectively. This is also going to be important as well as interesting with respect to overall results in elections. Though this seat is expected to witness both the impact of boycott as well as good numbers in polling, area wise. Still, there will be a close fight between the candidates of various rival political parties.
NC’s president, Dr. Farooq Abdulla is himself contesting from this seat again after winning from this part of the zone several times. Congress this time has not fielded its candidate to represent the central seat, paving a way for NC to ease its win. PC came up with Irfan Raza Ansari a businessman turned politician and brother of former PDP minister Imran Raza Ansari. BJP has given the ticket to Khalid Jahangeer and PDP has put their trust on Agha Syed Mohsin.
Conclusion
While Kashmir valley has seen an abrupt increase in violent incidents and killings post-2016, this election scenario is going to be crucial for the state, and might end up changing the entire political narrative.