In the important NCR Lok Sabha constituency of Gautam Budh Nagar, Dr. Mahesh Sharma, the BJP MP and Minister of State for Tourism and Aviation is facing a tough fight by Satveer Nagar – the young dynamic face of both BSP and SP, whose popularity appears to be rising by the day. And there are other factors too working against Dr.Sharma.
Sharma had a comfortable win in 2014 having garnered over 50% of the votes cast, thanks largely to the Modi wave and divided the opposition. BSP and SP’s combined vote percentage in 2014 was 44%. In 2009, he had lost to BSP’s Surendra Singh Nagar. The voting percentage of the leading four candidates were: BSP -33%, BJP-31%, SP-16%, and INC-15%. But this time around, with Modi wave missing and the leading opposition parties – BSP and SP – joining hands to defeat the BJP, the scenario is completely different.
Gautam Budh Nagar has around 20 lakh voters. This seat has five Vidhan Sabha constituencies under it- Noida, Dadri, Jewar, Sikandaraba, and Khurja. However, the rising anti-incumbency factor together with the community and caste equation against Dr. Sharma is likely to bring him down. This is a constituency where there are more urban voters than rural (60:40) but the fate of candidates largely hinges on which way the rural votes swing. Rural voters matter much in Gautam Budh Nagar LS constituency.
Farmers’ distress in this constituency has become a big worrying factor for the BJP. Moreover, the community and caste equation is not in favour of BJP either. This constituency has around 21% Gujjar population, the community to which Satveer Nagar belongs. Muslims constitute around 13%, Dalits 13% and Yadavs 10% of the total population. And these major groups have already made up their mind to vote for BSP+SP joint candidate.
What may be worrying Sharma, even more, is the rising popularity of Nagar with each passing day. This has been evident with the growing number of people attending the latter’s numerous roadshows, while the former’s show of strength has been feeble.
Nagar has been a popular young leader of the area and even before his name was finalized, he had been doing successful road shows and meetings where numbers of attendees have been swelling with each passing day. It seems voters of this constituency have already made up their mind to go for a dynamic young face over the old guard. A repeat victory looks distant for Sharma as the writings on the walls become clearer by the day.