While the advent of the digital era in India has brought many advantages, one of the backlashes of this epoch has been the addition of fake news and analysis which now plays a role in influencing voters. Take for instance the Trump-Clinton Presidential Election of 2016. Fake news played a significant role in what young voters consumed online. The 2019 Lok Sabha Elections also saw the same. I believe the Opposition depended on fake news and analysis as a core campaign strategy against the Narendra Modi led NDA, particularly around the economy and job creation. With this, the Opposition aimed to sway the young voter. Let’s take a look at the reality behind these claims, and why this strategy ultimately cost the Opposition the young vote.
The Opposition consistently claimed that the Modi led NDA promised 10 million jobs per year in the 2014 election campaign. “Where are the jobs Mr Modi, where are the jobs?,” RaGa would chant in multiple election rallies. This was a fake argument along with inaccurate analysis. Approximately 330 million were employed in 1993-94 and just under 430 million were employed in 2011-12. Between 2009-12, one million jobs were lost.
If the BJP claimed that there would be 10 million jobs added (which they never have), that would mean that the government would be responsible for increasing the rate of employment almost 200x than what the fastest rate is. Why would the party even want to get into this? No. The BJP-NDA has never made this promise. The BJP has made very reasonable claims on jobs. In the 2019 Sankalp Patra, the party promises to create better job opportunities for the people. The other mention of jobs in this manifesto is the BJP stating that it has ensured that EWS sections of society are represented and have access to government jobs and higher education through 10% EWS reservation.
In the 2014 BJP Election Manifesto, the BJP states that the country has been ‘dragged through’ 10 years of jobless growth by the Congress-led UPA and the data does not lie to support this statement. Between 2004-11, only 10 million jobs were created over seven years. Goes to show how much Rahul Gandhi would have actually delivered.
Furthermore, a consistent argument of the Opposition was that demonetisation led to job loss. On the contrary, employment increased at a very healthy rate, post-demonetization. According to NSSO data, 12.7 million jobs were added for adults (25-64 years). This is a very healthy increase of 3.7% and was the highest over the past 30 years! There were also about seven million jobs added for the youth (15-24 years). This data decimates any claim that demonetisation had killed jobs.
For a politician anywhere in the world, economy and jobs are fundamental tenets to be improved or maintained under their leadership. While Trump may not be popular for his poignant tweets and in-your-face personality, he is likely to serve another term because he has delivered on cutting taxes, economic growth and creating jobs…..matching his slogan mantra “Make America Great Again!” He has also found success with increased military spending, global trade and international relations. The United States is the top foreign direct investor in India at the moment.
So how many jobs does India really need? Why did this Opposition strategy break down? Demographically, over 65% of the Indian population is under the age of 35 years. Enrollment in both schools and colleges has increased by approximately six million every year. With the advent of more females in school and healthcare, the fertility rate of women has also gone down to a healthy figure. In the 1960s, a woman in India had six children on average. Today, the figure is down to an average of 2.1 children.
15-24-year-olds will only expand by 0.4 million per year between 2019-2024. Even if the workforce participation of this group is on the high side at 50%, India will only need to add about 4.5 million jobs per year, which according to NSSO data is already being added. The increased number of registered provident funds prove the increase in jobs in India. PM Modi’s NDA has delivered on jobs and the economy.
Here is where the Opposition failed on their fake news narrative, if you can even call it that, for the General Election 2019. RaGa’s claim of 10 million jobs was not researched well. India does not need to produce that many jobs per year. The economy has done better under the NDA regime than UPA rule. The fatal mistake the Opposition made was that it assumed the youth would be gullible to buy into fake claims. But RaGa ignored the fact that internet usage and smartphone ownership has increased exponentially.
India is no longer a feudal, illiterate ground. Rather, the country is an aspiring middle class on the cusp of becoming a developed nation in the next few years. This means that the youth are now well-informed citizens of India. They understand the performance of the economy and the job scenario. And the election results speak for themselves. I believe the youth voted for a leader who has improved the conditions of the country and set the stage for the middle class to rise higher. They voted for the candidate that did not play vote bank politics but one that promised to work hard for the nation and take everybody along in the development of the country- ‘Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas’. And Narendra Modi’s historic, epic, landslide win…..well, it is enough to shut the Opposition up.