In the aftermath of the Balakot airstrikes in February 2019, national security superseded all other issues as the No.1 priority for many Indians. In the weeks following the airstrikes, Prime Minister Narendra Modi saw a huge upsurge in his approval ratings, rising from 32% at the beginning of the year to over 60%.
Entering the election season on the back of that momentum, the BJP was expected to comfortably win the national elections and form the government. This expectation was reinforced by the exit poll results, which predicted that the BJP-led NDA would easily form the government.
Predicting election results is difficult anywhere in the world but it is even more difficult in a country as diverse as India, where polling takes place over seven phases and more than a month. The exit polls suggested that the Modi led-BJP would comfortably form a government, leaving the Congress far behind.
Are Exit Polls Always Right?
Both Brexit and the American election results were a surprise, where exit polls, psephologists and popular media had predicted that the ‘Remain’ camp and Hillary Clinton, respectively, would win. Just a couple of weeks ago, Australians were in for a surprise as the country’s ruling coalition defied exit polls to defeat the Labour party.
One reason that exit polls get it wrong is the ’Spiral of Silence’, a powerful theory proposed by German political scientist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, which has been credited for some of the surprise results we have seen in the recent past. The theory argues that people who believe that they hold the minority view on public issues are less likely to voice them due to the fear of being excluded by others.
Is A Similar Spiral Of Silence Operating In India?
Tejasvi Surya, BJP’s candidate from South Bangalore, had proclaimed in a speech a few days before he was given the party ticket: “This election is going to be the test of a common man’s patriotism. “If you are with Modi, you are with India and if you are not with Modi, you are anti-India.” Widely shared and repeated by many BJP supporters, it is rhetoric like this that pushes people into being silent and not expressing their real views. When electoral preferences become a test of patriotism, one is bound to feel worried about revealing their true preferences. BJP is argued to be tougher on voices that go against it, making the fear of isolation even stronger for people who don’t support it. Overall, I believe that there are two reasons why support for the BJP is overestimated.
The Noise Made By Modi Supporters
The spiral of silence depends on people’s perception of which view is held by the majority. People may be afraid of voicing their opinions if they think that their belief is in the minority. Currently, in India, the Modi camp is far more vocal than the Congress camp. This is because of several reasons. First, as the party in power and one with vastly more campaign funding, the BJP has more control over the narrative and what reaches the masses. Under the current government, press freedom has declined and the media has been used to spread the official line on the government’s achievements. Essentially, they have the power to amplify voices that support them, making Congress supporters feel like they hold the minority view.
Second, BJP is argued to be tougher on voices that go against it, making the fear of isolation even stronger for people who don’t support it.
“I want this government to be criticised. Criticism makes democracy strong. Democracy cannot succeed without constructive criticism.”, said PM Modi at what was mocked as a scripted interview with Prasoon Joshi. Yet, the government has shown itself to be intolerant of dissenting voices, and common people have been arrested for merely criticising Modi on the street or posting on Facebook. In addition, cases of mob lynchings and violence have dramatically increased, and thus the fear is not only one of social exclusion but even of physical harm.
The Reluctant Congress Voter
Not only are Modi supporters more vociferous, but the people who end up voting for Congress may also be more reluctant to disclose their views. Rahul Gandhi’s long-standing image as ’Pappu’, which he has tried to shed in the recent past, makes it difficult for his supporters to openly acknowledge their preference. “If not Modi, then who?”, is a common refrain used by BJP supporters, daring people to name Gandhi or anyone else as a credible contender. Moreover, in these elections, what may be important is not only the voter who has a clear preference between BJP and Congress but the one who doesn’t.
In a major pre-poll survey, only 67% of respondents clearly picked either Modi or Gandhi as their PM candidate, 18% expressed support for other leaders and 15% did not respond. Who these people voted for depends on who they disliked less rather than who they liked more. This is important because this kind of voter is particularly less likely to clearly endorse one candidate and make their view public.