How Legit Is PM’s Concern Over ‘Population Explosion’?
Shubhangi Shah
प्रधानमंत्री मोदी
On the eve of India’s 73rd Independence Day, PM Modi addressed the nation for the sixth time, where he raised many valid issues: from abandoning the use of single-use plastic, water conservation to the announcement that India is set to have the Chief of Defense Staff. One of the issues he raised firmly was that of ‘population explosion’; the need for family planning and smaller families. He went on to say that small families should be seen as role models as what they have done is an act of patriotism. He called the central and state governments to devise schemes to contain the issue of ‘population explosion’.
In his I-DAy speech, PM Modi called “population explosion” a national challenge. Image via Getty
This is juxtaposed to the facts of the Economic Survey (2018-19), tabled by the Chief Economic Adviser K. Subramaniam in the Parliament in July this year. Though India is the second-most populous country in the world with a population of roughly 1.33 billion—with its own sets of drawbacks and challenges—India is nowhere heading towards a ‘population explosion’.
According to the Economic Survey 2018-19, India has entered the next stage of demographic transition and is set to witness a sharp population decline in the next two decades. This is due to the decline in the overall fertility rate. India’s population growth rate which is 1.2% at present will reduce to 1% in the decade 2021-2030, followed by 0.5% in 2031-2040, which is identical to the population growth rates being witnessed in advanced economies like France and Germany.
Population growth rate varies according to regions with southern states going to witness population slowdown earlier. Tamil Nadu’s population will start declining from the 2030s onward that represents a negative population growth rate. Andhra Pradesh will have a 0% growth rate; while it will be in the range of 0.1-0.2% in Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab and Haryana.
Though population growth rate in highly populated states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan will be high, it will halve in the next two decades.
In terms of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) (defined as the expected number of children to be born to a woman during her reproductive span of 14-49 years), India stands at is 2.2 (as in 2017), which is very close to the Replacement Rate of 2.1. Replacement Rate is the number of children a female should have to keep the population constant. There is an urban-rural disparity in this with urban India’s TFR being 1.7, which is well below the replacement rate (2.1). In rural India, the TFR is high at 2.4, but it’s very close to the replacement rate.
TFR varies across states. In Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and West Bengal, it’s well below the replacement level. In total, there are 24 states and UTs with TFR below the replacement level. In densely populated states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, the TFR is above the replacement rate but is witnessing a sharp decline having been halved from 4.5 in 1984 to 2.3 in 2016.
For the different age groups, the population in the 0-19 years age bracket has already peaked. Hence, the number of elementary school-going children in the age group of 6-14 years—who are covered under the Right to Education Act—is expected to decline. India will continue to enjoy the demographic dividend as the working-age population will increase by 96.5 million people in 2021-2030 followed by 41.5 million in 2031-2040.
Hence, the need of the hour is job creation if India seeks to reap the benefits of its demographic dividend. This will be a humongous task for the government, given the fact that the unemployment rate in India is at a 45-year high. The share of elderly in the population is set to double from 8.6% in 2011 to 16% in 2041. This indicates the need for India to improve its healthcare sector and other social benefits for the elderly, such as an old-age pension scheme, in order to sustain such a huge old age population.
A huge population brings substantial economic and social constraints and challenges with it. But if appropriately invested in the country’s Human Resource Development, then this gigantic population can become the country’s biggest asset. The need of the hour is quality education, sound healthcare and sanitation facilities, and ample job opportunities.
