A couple of days ago in my article, ‘Why were thousands of extra troops deployed to Kashmir over the last few days’ my guess was that there would be neither any changes in article 370 or 35-A nor would there be any bi-furcation or tri-furcation of Jammu and Kashmir. The guess was based on Narendra Modi’s functioning in the past, especially not taking action on the matters which are sub-judice. Also, I assumed no government would ever want to do anything when the Amarnath Yatra is on, Independence Day is nearing (security is always on high alert in the weeks close to Independence Day), and the Parliament is in the session.
But then, what I missed was Amit Shah and his shrewd strategies.
First, the budget session of the Parliament was extended up to August 7th on 25th July. That means the extension was really done for such a historic act. Then, troops were systematically mobilised. Today, on 5th August 2019, the Home Minister submitted a resolution in Rajya Sabha to repeal article 370 after amending some terms through a Presidential order.
Was Article 370 used to repeal article 370 itself? How? To remove article 370, a resolution needs to be passed by both houses of Parliament with a two-thirds majority with amendments to article 368. But, the Modi government used section-3 of article 370 which mandates the President of India to issue Presidential orders. The Presidential order 2019 changed some of the terms in article 370 and added provisions in article 367. The term ‘Constituent Assembly’ has been replaced by ‘Legislative Assembly’, and Sadar-I Riyasat is replaced by Governor of Jammu Kashmir.
As per article 370 section-3, the President can repeal the article subject to the recommendation of Constituent assembly. Now, the Constituent Assembly has been replaced by the Legislative Assembly which is not available in J&K at the moment. Thus, the Governor of J&K can give the recommendation in the absence of the legislative assembly which is required to be passed by both houses of Parliament by a simple majority.
That’s what the Narendra Modi government is doing cleverly, by passing this Constitutional amendment. The NDA lacks a majority in Rajya Sabha yet it passed bills like RTI amendment bill as well as triple talaq bill with ease. In my article, ‘Triple Talaq Bill was passed in Rajya Sabha, should we be worried about the reasons why?’ I clearly mentioned that abrogation of article 370 and 35 A were possible due to such managed majority, although I was apprehensive that some other bills that give Modi absolute power might also unfurl.
However, I couldn’t have imagined that the NDA government would take such action even without the numbers and at such a juncture. By this time, YSRCP, AIDMK, BSP, BJD, TRS. AAP, TDP etc. have offered their support in Rajya Sabha. In fact, this is such a sentimental matter for India; I think it would be very difficult for other parties to oppose it in the Rajya Sabha.
The proposal of bifurcating Jammu and Kashmir into two Union territories speaks of a long-term plan by the Modi government. In a UT, the central government has the most authority (including police force) to tackle security challenges.
Now coming back to my point, where did I commit a mistake in not guessing this outcome? As I said before, I forgot the capabilities of Amit Shah. The entire development carries the stamp of Amit Shah and not Narendra Modi although it can be said that Narendra Modi brought Amit Shah into his cabinet to take care of such delicate issues.
Many asked, “what would be the repercussions?”. Well, every informed person should know that the three and a half districts in Kashmir will be disturbed as usual. Ladakh is out of Jammu and Kashmir. There will be delimitation which will give Jammu more say in the J&K, UT assembly. And that’s the plan.
Pakistan might become desperate but what can it do? Will it try to send the forty thousand militants working on its soil as admitted by Imran Khan? But Indian security forces have been deployed to counter such misadventures. I don’t think Pakistan can dare to go to war. The international community most likely won’t listen to Pakistan’s comments on the internal matters of India.
In conclusion, I would say, the entire exercise carries the stamp of Amit Shah who perhaps was given a free hand by Narendra Modi. To take historic decisions, one needs bravery, and at the same time, a deep understanding of issues.
In my opinion, Amit Shah displayed his purely professional work ethic and extraordinary skills as President of BJP and now as Union Home Minister, he has displayed extraordinary political skill which really stunned all political parties’, Opposition or otherwise. It is still too early to think of Amit Shah as heir to Narendra Modi, but rest assured, Amit Shah will be one of most successful union Home Ministers after Sardar Patel in the times to come.