Flooding in Assam has now become an annual calamity and every year, millions of people are displaced and hundreds lose their lives. According to a report by the Central Water Commission (CWC), from 1953 to 2016, approximately 26 lakh people are affected every year. However, with the advent of COVID-19, it is anticipated that the state is likely to go through a catastrophe-like situation in next two-months. According to state health minister Dr Himanta Biswa Sarma, the next few months in the state will be challenging as the state will not only fight the pandemic but also the flood and flood-related disease outbreak. He said, “Assam will probably have the most unfortunate and crisis-filled year in 2020.”
There are many contributory factors towards the devastating flood in the state, both natural and man-made. Natural factors involve incessant rain during the monsoon, erosion of riverbank, the placement of tectonic plates and above all, the geographical location of Assam with a vast network of rivers. This all adds to the rise in the river bed caused after frequent earthquakes, landslides and large loads of sediment and debris being flown from Tibet region- the origin of river Brahmaputra.
Moreover, there are several man-made factors which include encroachment of forestlands and wetlands. Last year, around 90 people lost their lives directly from flood and over 150 from flood-related diseases such as vector-borne Japanese Encephalitis.
The most challenging factor for the state will be maintaining social distancing amidst the flood crisis, as lakhs of people will be moving to relief shelters, which primarily includes schools and government buildings. In an advisory and risk analysis by Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) titled ‘Strategic Response Plan for COVID-19′ mentioned that social distancing will be a challenging affair with the advent of flood season.
It said, “Since Assam is approaching flood season, social distancing may become a challenging affair in a mass displacement scenario or in a relief camps setting which may further aggravate the spread of infection.”
Lakhs of people are displaced during the flood season, few choose to go to relief camps while few built community makeshift shelters in an elevated area. Seeing the current rate of the spread of COVID-19, maintaining social distancing will be tough for people.
However, the report also called for, “(Ensuring) the identified quarantine facilities are separate from identified flood relief camps,” But, there is no such advisory on maintaining social distancing in such mass displacement scenario. Moreover, during flood season, the delivery of relief materials and medicine will be challenging.
A resident from Nagaon district said, “Even though we are maintaining social distance right now but it will be very tough when my area will be underwater as we have to move to the dyke to seek shelter. There will be hundreds of people in such a small area.”
Nilakshi, a legal practitioner opined that flood-related disease such as Japanese Encephalitis, Acute Encephalitis Syndrome, Malaria and Dengue will add more worry. She said, “These vector-borne diseases will fuel problems as hospitals will get flood with patients with such diseases. Social distancing will be impossible by then.”
According to last year’s data, around 154 people died due to Japanese Encephalitis with 640 positives cases. Nearly 2652 cases of Acute Encephalitis Syndrome, 2307 cases of Malaria and 167 cases of Dengue were reported last year, most of which occurred during the flood season. She said, “Even if we contain the spread of COVID-19 by the time Assam goes through the flood, we still have to follow the social distancing norms for few more months as it is a healthy practice. Mass displacement will not allow such practise even if people try their best.”
The practice of social distancing and home isolation contains the likely chances of spread of COVID-19. However, with the approaching flood season, the state of Assam and neighbouring northeastern state will have to go through challenging crisis-filled time when millions of people will displaced. Before it gets too late, the state government has to look through every possibility to minimise the challenge arising from flood season amidst COVID-19 pandemic.