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Are We Seeing A New India Since 2014 Or It Is It Old Wine In A New Bottle?

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Divided we stand; United we all fall! Before I jump into the core of my topic here, a quick recap of history might be useful. The last and only time India ever had a full-blown civil war was in 1558 A.D. between the Mughals and the Rajputs. Post that period, if there was one period where India came really close to a civil war was in the late 1980s to early 90s.

This dark period between 1984-2002 was possibly the worst in modern Indian history. Sikh extremism, Islamic extremism, Hindu extremism, Christian extremism [North East], Buddhist extremism [Sri Lanka] were all in their violent peaks. All religions and all major political parties were involved in some brutal pogroms. Terrorism of all stripes were all over India. While the 1947 partition was more binary [Hindus v. Muslims], this time it was a free for all clash. In this period of India’s worst terrorism, India came twice very close to a nuclear showdown with Pakistan.

I think that what the last government left for us is pretty much known to all of India. One scam after the other became a norm of working/living in India. Hence in 2014, India came out and voted for a change. India and its citizens found Modi the righteous person does so. We gave him 280+ seats to win with a resounding majority. Hope is what our country has rested its foundation stone on. The hope that the roads outside will improve, the hope that I will get a better salary, the hope that someday I’ll be able to buy my dream house.

India and Indians are ‘hopeful’ people.

In 2014, India came out and voted for a change. India and its citizens found Modi the righteous person does so. PM Narendra Modi.

Hence as always, their lies tremendous ‘hope’ in our political system and our state representatives. Now, comes the troubles around being so hopeful. For starters, Modi was expected to come in power and wave a shiny new wand and dispel the UPA created a dark storm. That, unfortunately, hasn’t happened as of yet. Yes, the working within the government is far more efficient and clean vs what it was during the ‘Vadra’ days. India today is on the global map for being one of the fastest-growing nations, for being the youngest (by population) nation etc.

All the remaining good/bad initiates can be read online. Below, I’m going to enumerate a few of the key foundations stones of Why I foresee the “Civil War of 2022 instead of New India”

The Number Problem

Demographics Age structure: 0-14 years: 27.71% (male 186,420,229/female 164,611,755) 15-24 years: 17.99% (male 121,009,850/female 106,916,692) 25-54 years: 40.91% (male 267,203,029/female 251,070,105) 55-64 years: 7.3% (male 46,398,574/female 46,105,489) 65 years and over: 6.09% (male 36,549,003/female 40,598,872) (2016 est.) As seen in this chart above over 55% of India is below 30 years of age. Yes, this does mean we have a lovely young population (me included!!).

The problem begins with this chart. By the year 2022, over 33% of India will be in the 18-30-year age bracket. This new generation of India or the so-called millennials is the working force whose aspirations from life and work are a little away from reality. This generation needs instant glory/gratification. Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Whatsapp, iPhones, iPads, Flipkart, Uber, Ola, Amazon are all for and by their usage. Now we come to a very critical question- How would this generation sustain without a job/employment/salary??

Unemployment

The unemployment rate in the country will stand at 3.5 per cent in 2018 and 2019 – the same level of unemployment seen in 2017 and 2016, the ILO’s ‘World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018’ report said. In its 2017 report, the ILO had projected the unemployment rate in India at 3.4 per cent in 2017 and 2018. The ILO said the unemployment rate at a global level would decline for the first time in three years. According to its latest report, the number of jobless in the country will increase to 18.6 million in 2018 and 18.9 million in 2019, against 18.3 million in 2017.

In last year’s report, the ILO had forecast that the number of unemployed in the country is expected to be 18 million in 2018 and had estimated the unemployment figure for 2017 at 17.8 million. The ILO has, on the contrary, projected a dip in unemployment rate globally from 5.6 per cent in 2017 to 5.5 per cent in 2018 and 2019. In its 2017 report, the ILO had projected the global unemployment rate at 5.8 per cent for 2017 and 2018. Globally, 192.3 million people will remain unemployed in 2018 – a slight dip from 192.7 million in 2017.

Technology will act as the ultimate ‘Nail in the Coffin’ towards the rising unemployment! I think that more unemployment will create more anti-social activities and that push into the situation of the Civil War. All youth try to full their dreams but not having cash flow in the account will disturb the societies structure.

The Money Problem

Income inequality in India If there’s one thing that November 8th 2016 demonetization drive didn’t change are these ridiculous numbers- The richest 1% of Indians own approx 73% of the wealth.

The richest 10 % of the Indians own approx 85% of the wealth. This trend is going in the upward direction every year, which means the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer!!! ‘Modi’ thought that by banning old denomination notes overnight this inequality would reduce. He thought that by attaching a stigma around cash he could make the country come clean overnight.

Literally, all of India stood in lines outside ATM’s to withdraw whatever new currency they could. For 50 freaking days, every Indian became an economist of sorts. The poor stood in lines with a single thought process- “Modi ji has said that by standing here I’m a quasi Jawan fighting the evil of Black Money+ My ‘saab’ is going to lose some of his money so why not enjoy that sadistic pleasure too??!!” Barring a one-off case, the rich/neo-rich spent 50 days in fighting the system. The entire old currency came back into the system and almost nothing was left for the RBI to give as dividend!! Such a scenario is not good for societies.

If the income gap will increase in such ratio then one or other will take an unconstitutional way to earn the money or Rate of Crime will increase. In recent history, few of the countries faced such problem where common people come to road for justification. Crony capitalism somehow good for society to create the opportunity but if will extent the limits then the result will be dangerous and might be force the pollution to move for Civil War and take what they want.

Farmer Income Promise And

The promise From First Prime Minister to the current Prime Minister but Farmer Income remain same. All the political parties (State and Centre) before the election announced for doubling the income for the farmer without any road map and after election busy to write off the capitalist defaulters. They have to write off the businessmen loan as they received such amount by as “Party Chanda”. By several accounts, there was no abatement in farmers’ suicides in the last two years, and Maharashtra continues to head the list.

The latest figures for 2016 and 2017 are not available, but according to the National Crime Records Bureau, 8,007 farmers died by suicide in 2015 as compared to 5,650 in 2014. This does not include suicides by 4,595 labourers in 2015 as against 6,710 in 2014. The loan waiver trigger was the assembly election in Uttar Pradesh in February this year, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed during his campaign to waiving farmers’ loans for a certain category of loaners. The Adityanath government that was formed had to fulfil that promise with a Rs 36,000 crore package which, as it turned out, was initially fraught with a gross shortcoming in implementation.

In Punjab, which had also gone to the polls in February along with Uttar Pradesh, Congress party’s chief ministerial candidate Amarinder Singh made a similar promise. After coming to power, he set up a committee and much thought was given to how they would implement a waiver, given their limited resources. Finally, an Rs. 15,000 – crore package was worked out. BJP-Shiv Sena-ruled Maharashtra, which has seen the highest number of farmers’ suicides over the years, also announced a package of Rs 30,000 crore but again, implementation has been tardy.

After the mess up in Mandsaur in Madhya Pradesh, where at least five farmers were reported to have been killed during protests, Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje brought in experts to work out a deal including levying a lower rate of interest on agricultural borrowings. BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan go to polls next year and, therefore, have much at stake in resolving farmers’ issues. Bowing to pressure, Madhya Pradesh under Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Haryana under Manohar Lal Khattar decided to pay growers the difference between the minimum support price and the distress sale rate.

Since the agriculture sector of the country is under stress currently, the government needs to ensure adequate reforms are introduced to revive the sector. Even as the government is readying up to its future in the 2019 elections, agriculture sector plays a pivotal role in its scheme of things. “Agriculture sector needs the much-needed attention and 52% population of the country are looking forward to reforms in this sector for the last 4 years. It would be unwise for the government to not look at this sector seriously as it is facing a crisis at the moment and can really make or break the government’s future in the 2019 elections.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley should also ensure that the minimum support price (MSP) offered to farmers gets linked to the actual expense incurred by him on the ground in Union Budget 2018, says he. “The measures need to go beyond a mere loan waiver but should fulfil the promise made in the election manifesto of the Minimum Support Price being linked to the actual expense incurred by the farmers (in fact actual expense +50%). The technicalities can be deliberated upon, but steps should be taken in this direction instead of hiding behind the food inflation excuse,

No one can survive without food and “New India” not possible without the actual growth of farmer. In 2022 if all have money but not Food then the country will face the same problem as Zimbabwe.

Scams

Manmohan Singh – Sab Commands Aaye Madam se Arun Jaitley – Statutory Cess Adding Machine Mayawati – Scheduled Castewaalon Aao Merepaas Arvind Kejriwal – Sardi, Cough Aur Muffler?

This is also the best tool for a politician to fool the voters during election and came to power. Better not to talk on Scams “Karta Sab Hai Par Dekhta Koi Nahi”. Summing up the above five pointers; In my opinion, the upcoming Civil War 2022 would not find fuel in the age-old causes such as religion, caste or region…They could all act as catalysts but the real full-blown fight would be for freedom, equality and survival. It’ll be a war fought by the youth towards asking some hard questions with regards to sustainable governance, employment, affordability of basic amenities such as housing and food.

It will be more heinous than anyone can ever imagine. The things which most of you see as India’s strength are actually the cause of inaction over any issue decisively, as no one wants to take risk of life or property for RIGHT. Mark my words the world is heading into highly uncertain times. Global leadership will be tested in the times ahead. Economies can be made or completely shattered with a ‘Black Swan’ President like Trump, Putin, Xi Jinping.

Mass public protests such as the ones we are seeing in the US currently or the London riots a few years ago or the Occupy Wall Street movement have all got a common string- Public Discontent!

My Opinion

If Modi is unable to fulfil at least 2 out of 5, then the horn of Civil War will start from last of 2020 and if the same pace will continue then at the beginning of 2022 India will in Mode of Civil War. Few of my friends will not agree and try to be blind but the reality is reality. The 2019 election will be very crucial for political parties as they have to deliver what they will promise. In the Era of technology, political parties can’t fool the citizen for a long time. Gradually youth have less patience compare to last decade. More always harmful for all.

Disclosure: All views here are entirely my own and are not influenced by anyone else. I have no political vendetta against anyone or any party. All I care for is just one thing- my motherland- India and its progress. I would hope that my above-mentioned predictions never come true. This note is only meant to make you ponder on all possible scenarios of where the country could head if we all act as selfish irresponsible citizens!!!

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An ambassador and trained facilitator under Eco Femme (a social enterprise working towards menstrual health in south India), Sanjina is also an active member of the MHM Collective- India and Menstrual Health Alliance- India. She has conducted Menstrual Health sessions in multiple government schools adopted by Rotary District 3240 as part of their WinS project in rural Bengal. She has also delivered training of trainers on SRHR, gender, sexuality and Menstruation for Tomorrow’s Foundation, Vikramshila Education Resource Society, Nirdhan trust and Micro Finance, Tollygunj Women In Need, Paint It Red in Kolkata.

Now as an MH Fellow with YKA, she’s expanding her impressive scope of work further by launching a campaign to facilitate the process of ensuring better menstrual health and SRH services for women residing in correctional homes in West Bengal. The campaign will entail an independent study to take stalk of the present conditions of MHM in correctional homes across the state and use its findings to build public support and political will to take the necessary action.

Saurabh has been associated with YKA as a user and has consistently been writing on the issue MHM and its intersectionality with other issues in the society. Now as an MHM Fellow with YKA, he’s launched the Right to Period campaign, which aims to ensure proper execution of MHM guidelines in Delhi’s schools.

The long-term aim of the campaign is to develop an open culture where menstruation is not treated as a taboo. The campaign also seeks to hold the schools accountable for their responsibilities as an important component in the implementation of MHM policies by making adequate sanitation infrastructure and knowledge of MHM available in school premises.

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Harshita is a psychologist and works to support people with mental health issues, particularly adolescents who are survivors of violence. Associated with the Azadi Foundation in UP, Harshita became an MHM Fellow with YKA, with the aim of promoting better menstrual health.

Her campaign #MeriMarzi aims to promote menstrual health and wellness, hygiene and facilities for female sex workers in UP. She says, “Knowledge about natural body processes is a very basic human right. And for individuals whose occupation is providing sexual services, it becomes even more important.”

Meri Marzi aims to ensure sensitised, non-discriminatory health workers for the needs of female sex workers in the Suraksha Clinics under the UPSACS (Uttar Pradesh State AIDS Control Society) program by creating more dialogues and garnering public support for the cause of sex workers’ menstrual rights. The campaign will also ensure interventions with sex workers to clear misconceptions around overall hygiene management to ensure that results flow both ways.

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MH Fellow Sabna comes with significant experience working with a range of development issues. A co-founder of Project Sakhi Saheli, which aims to combat period poverty and break menstrual taboos, Sabna has, in the past, worked on the issue of menstruation in urban slums of Delhi with women and adolescent girls. She and her team also released MenstraBook, with menstrastories and organised Menstra Tlk in the Delhi School of Social Work to create more conversations on menstruation.

With YKA MHM Fellow Vineet, Sabna launched Menstratalk, a campaign that aims to put an end to period poverty and smash menstrual taboos in society. As a start, the campaign aims to begin conversations on menstrual health with five hundred adolescents and youth in Delhi through offline platforms, and through this community mobilise support to create Period Friendly Institutions out of educational institutes in the city.

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A student from Delhi School of Social work, Vineet is a part of Project Sakhi Saheli, an initiative by the students of Delhi school of Social Work to create awareness on Menstrual Health and combat Period Poverty. Along with MHM Action Fellow Sabna, Vineet launched Menstratalk, a campaign that aims to put an end to period poverty and smash menstrual taboos in society.

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A psychologist and co-founder of a mental health NGO called Customize Cognition, Ritika forayed into the space of menstrual health and hygiene, sexual and reproductive healthcare and rights and gender equality as an MHM Fellow with YKA. She says, “The experience of working on MHM/SRHR and gender equality has been an enriching and eye-opening experience. I have learned what’s beneath the surface of the issue, be it awareness, lack of resources or disregard for trans men, who also menstruate.”

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A Computer Science engineer by education, Nitisha started her career in the corporate sector, before realising she wanted to work in the development and social justice space. Since then, she has worked with Teach For India and Care India and is from the founding batch of Indian School of Development Management (ISDM), a one of its kind organisation creating leaders for the development sector through its experiential learning post graduate program.

As a Youth Ki Awaaz Menstrual Health Fellow, Nitisha has started Let’s Talk Period, a campaign to mobilise young people to switch to sustainable period products. She says, “80 lakh women in Delhi use non-biodegradable sanitary products, generate 3000 tonnes of menstrual waste, that takes 500-800 years to decompose; which in turn contributes to the health issues of all menstruators, increased burden of waste management on the city and harmful living environment for all citizens.

Let’s Talk Period aims to change this by

Find out more about her campaign here.

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A former Assistant Secretary with the Ministry of Women and Child Development in West Bengal for three months, Lakshmi Bhavya has been championing the cause of menstrual hygiene in her district. By associating herself with the Lalana Campaign, a holistic menstrual hygiene awareness campaign which is conducted by the Anahat NGO, Lakshmi has been slowly breaking taboos when it comes to periods and menstrual hygiene.

A Gender Rights Activist working with the tribal and marginalized communities in india, Srilekha is a PhD scholar working on understanding body and sexuality among tribal girls, to fill the gaps in research around indigenous women and their stories. Srilekha has worked extensively at the grassroots level with community based organisations, through several advocacy initiatives around Gender, Mental Health, Menstrual Hygiene and Sexual and Reproductive Health Rights (SRHR) for the indigenous in Jharkhand, over the last 6 years.

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Bidisha was selected in Change.org’s flagship program ‘She Creates Change’ having run successful online advocacy
campaigns, which were widely recognised. Through the #BleedwithDignity campaign; she organised and celebrated World Menstrual Hygiene Day, 2019 in Guwahati, Assam by hosting a wall mural by collaborating with local organisations. The initiative was widely covered by national and local media, and the mural was later inaugurated by the event’s chief guest Commissioner of Guwahati Municipal Corporation (GMC) Debeswar Malakar, IAS.

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