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Decoding The Growing Tensions Between India And Nepal: What Lies Ahead?

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The new map is going to replace the old map of Nepal. The new map claims that the 335 sq km area of Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura is located in Nepal, but the area is still in India. This region has been appearing on the Indian map for ages.

The bill on this issue has been passed in the lower house of the Nepal Parliament. It is evident that the matters are gradually getting out of India’s reach. Once the national emblem of Nepal is placed on this new map, there will be no way to correct it.

Addressing BJP members in Uttarakhand on June 15, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh spoke of the strength of bilateral relations between India and Nepal. He said, “Our army has Gorkha Regiment whose soldiers have displayed valour and courage on numerous times for the country. Its war cry is ‘Jai Mahakali Aayo Re Gorkhali ( Hail Mother Kali, here comes the Gorkha) and Mahakali is also present in Kolkata, Kamakhya and Vindhyachal with devotees all around India. Then how can the ties between the two countries break?”

Singh father added in his speech that “India-Nepal ties are not an ordinary one. We have a relation of ‘Roti and Beti’ which cannot be broken by any power of the world.” He said India’s differences with Nepal over these three places could be resolved through dialogue.

Singh made the remark two days after the bill to amend the constitution was passed in the lower house of Nepal’s Parliament. The bill will now be passed in the upper house of the Nepal Parliament. It will then be sent to the President of Nepal. Once he signs, the new map will be recognised instead of the old one.
Ever since Nepal took the initiative to change the map, India has been saying that this unilateral decision of Nepal is not acceptable.

Ignoring India’s objections, Nepal is moving towards its own goal. On the day the bill was passed in the lower house of Nepal’s Parliament, the old statement of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs was repeated. Later, Rajnath Singh was careful enough in his statement. It is clear that India does not want a repeat of the deteriorating relations with Nepal in the past, especially what happened in September 2015.

How Did Relations Between The Countries Take A New Turn?

According to the 1950 agreement, no passport is required to cross the border between the two countries. Historically, India has a good rapport with Nepal. In fact, there are no fences on the borders of the two countries, people move freely here. The relations between the two countries are smooth except for a few regional issues. In the context of such peaceful relations between the two countries, this border dispute between them is completely undesirable. But history does not follow in one’s own way.

With the end of monarchy in Nepal, the rise of Communists, the disagreement with India over the drafting of a new constitution, relations between the two countries took a new turn. Besides, Nepal’s growing closeness with China has become a headache for India. India-Nepal relations have become more toxic with the controversy over the new map of Nepal. Now the future of the relationship will depend on the prudence of the leadership of these two countries and the generosity of China.

In 1815, the King of Nepal signed the ‘Treaty of Sugauli’
In 1815, the King of Nepal signed the ‘Treaty of Sugauli’ with the East India Company, which was ratified in 1816.

Nepal has never raised the demand for Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura so strongly. Historically, India’s claim to the area has been predominant. In 1815, the King of Nepal signed the ‘Treaty of Sugauli’ with the East India Company, which was ratified in 1816. According to this treaty, Nepal got the right to the east Bank of Mahakali river and India got the right to the west bank. This position has remained unchanged for a long time.

The beginning of the argument centres on the identification of the source of the Mahakali river in the Nepali interpretation. Nepal’s explanation is that the region which India considers to be the source of the Mahakali river is not the actual source of the Mahakali river at all. So, the location of Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura is not in Pithoragarh of India but in Dharchula district of Nepal.

It is difficult for India to accede to Nepal’s claim, as it is stated in several documents apart from the Sugauli Agreement that the real owner of the region is India. During China’s invasion of Tibet in 1950s, India set up 17-18 military posts on the Chinese border with Nepal’s permission. In 1969, at the behest of King Mahendra of Nepal, Prime Minister Kirti Nidhi Bista asked Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to remove these Army posts.

Kalapani was not among the list of Army posts that Nepal gave to India at that time. Now the question is why Kalapani was not in this list? Nepal’s explanation for this question is that King Mahendra was aware of India’s security concerns, so at India’s request, he allowed the Indian Army to maintain an Army post at Kalapani. Incidentally, Kalapani is the entrance to the Lipulekh pass.

Is this interpretation of Nepal acceptable at all? China did not pay attention to this area in 1969. Also, the cultural revolution in China was at its peak at that time. It was not clear why Indira Gandhi would request Raja Mahendra to let India’s army post stay at Kalapani. And there is no historical document of Nepal’s claim. The baselessness of Nepal’s claim proves that India had set up an army post in Kalapani as per the previous treaty. There was no question of seeking permission from the king separately.

Why is Nepal Suddenly So Eager To Occupy This Region?

The reason for this to be found in the incompetence of India’s foreign policy and China’s incitement against India. Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, known as a staunch anti-Indian, became the Prime Minister of Nepal after the two communist parties merged at the initiative of China. Maoist leaders Prachanda and Madhav Kumar Nepal gradually became his challengers. Oli was rapidly losing popularity among the people of Nepal due to administrative failure. Although Oli was in post, the people were repeatedly demanding a change of Prime Minister. During this turmoil, India released a new map of Jammu and Kashmir in November 2019. The inclusion of Kalapani in this map gives Oli a new impetus to oppose India.

On May 8, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh inaugurated the Mansarovar Link Road, in which Oli got another weapon to criticise India. In 2005, India decided to build an 80 km long road to ease the difficult and inaccessible road to Mansarovar. The cost was estimated at 80 crores. The road, which was supposed to be completed in 2013, was inaugurated in May 2020.

By then, the cost has gone up to 440 crores. After the inauguration, Oli raised his voice against India. He adopted well-known anti-India tactics to handle mass protest in his own country. He stated that “those who are coming from India through illegal channels are spreading the virus in the country. Indian virus looks more lethal than Chinese and Italian now.” Immediately after his statement, a new map of Nepal was released. Leaving Prachanda and Madhav behind by cunning political tactics, Oli will be relieved for a while now.

What Should India Do Now In This Situation?

Modi with Nepal Prime Minister
In the last six years, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have brought the world leadership closer, but India’s distance from its neighbours is widening.

Experts think that India has to proceed very carefully this time. It would be foolish for India to take the kind of action it took at the time of the Madheshi problem. In other words, India should not take any decision like a blockade. If a hasty decision like blockade is taken, the result will be fatal. But, India has to be adamant in its demand for Kalapani, as the historical documents are in India’s favour. Moreover, Nepal has not closed the door for talks yet.

Nepal has formed a nine-member expert team whose job is to present evidence in support of Nepal’s claim. India has no choice but to resolve the issue politically and diplomatically without hurting the Nepali national sentiment.

In the last six years, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have brought the world leadership closer, but India’s distance from its neighbours is widening. The farther India moves away from its neighbours, the closer China becomes to them. Nepal is the biggest example of this. India’s proximity with its closest and most trusted neighbour Bangladesh is also waning. At present, it is necessary for the Indian leadership to think openly about this issue.

It is important to remember that Oli has followed the path shown by Modi. Oli played the nationalist card in this case, which Modi played during the surgical strikes on Pakistan. With this single weapon, Oli silenced the opposition, charmed the masses and blunted the ‘big brotherly’ arrogance of India. India has no choice but to remain flexible at the moment. As much as this move has brought Oli’s success as a politician, it has also exposed India’s diplomatic failure.

Nepal created a Kashmir-like situation for India with the Kalapani region. Kashmir is fragmented on India’s map to Pakistan and China. The new map of Nepal will also be a cause for concern for India. Because in this new map, even if it is small, a crack will be found in the Uttarakhand region. The issue is being handled very carefully by Indian leadership but it is still difficult to heal this would.

The article was first published here.

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