Even after the secondary sector and the tertiary sector has gained importance by contributing more to the GDP, the importance of agriculture hasn’t diluted. It was expected that with industrialisation, agriculture will lose its importance. But it did not happen, because analysts concluded on the basis of observing developed countries where the population easily moved out of agriculture. This could not be the case with India because of lack of capital to invest in industrial development. The developed countries had gained by exploiting their colonies. With this capital, they invested in their industries which were able to pull out labour from agriculture. In the case of India, the population is very huge and it needs even more investment to do the same.
Our policymakers didn’t answer where the wealth would come from. If we had invested more in agriculture and used its surplus as a base for industries, the scenario could have been different. Anyhow, the importance of agriculture in India will never fade away. The current situation is such that even after achieving self-sufficiency at a macro level, India remains home to millions of malnourished people. Whatever growth could be achieved also didn’t help farmers get out of poverty. Also, the dependence on employment hasn’t gone down in the same proportion as its sectoral percentage in GDP. All these factors lead us to analyse the trends and patterns of growth in agriculture until now to better formulate the policies for tomorrow.
First of all, we need to understand that cropping patterns have been changing. People are switching from food grain crops to commercial crops. This happened because commercial crops provided better profits. This, on the one hand, shows that people are willing to change their cropping patterns if they are assured of higher returns, while on the other hand shows the need to emphasise the production of essential food crops including pulses which have seen a relative decline.
During the period of triennium 1970-71 to 2007-08, a lot of changes took place in the cropping patterns. Significant of them are:-
- The rise in the area under cultivation of wheat from 10.42% in 1970-71 to around 14% in 2007-08
- The area under food grain crops declined by around 12% in the same period, primarily due to the fall in area under cultivation of coarse cereals which can have a significant impact on the lives of cultivators, especially in dry regions as high-value crops have high water requirements. This has also led to intensified cropping which can have further implications on soil health.
- The area under cultivation of coarse cereals went to oilseeds, fruits and vegetables, and other non-food crops.
The reason for the growth of the area under oilseed cultivation was primarily because of favourable market conditions for mustard, sunflower and soyabean.
The total share in the output of the crops is still dominated by cereals even though the percentage share has declined. The fruits and vegetables have grown considerably in terms of output share. The changing share was due to the changes in price which grew higher for fruits and vegetables. It is interesting to note that the price for pulses grew as well, but they saw a decline in production. The reason was unstable weather conditions and lower allocation of land to its cultivation. The production of cotton increased from 1990-91 to 2007-08, mainly because of the use of Bt cotton.
While growth in output prior to 1960s can be attributed to growth in the cultivable area, growth after 60s occurred due to a very much desirable phenomenon, i.e. the green revolution. The early green revolution helped primarily in rice and wheat production. Upon reaching maturity in 1980s, it helped other crops as well. Almost every crop enjoyed technological benefits and showed positive growth in yield during the 80s.
Early economic reform phase proved to be catastrophic for the agriculture sector when almost all major crop production showed a declining trend. The only crops to register high growths were groundnut and fibres, whose yields grew at 3.42% and 8.51% respectively. The government had set the target of growth at 4% for agriculture and allied activities since the 9th five-year plan. With crop production being 75% of the total output, its growth assumes great importance in achieving this target. But only rapeseed, mustard and potato could observe the growth of more than 4%.
While the impact of the green revolution was uneven on various crops, its impact across the country also varied. In fact, it can be said that the green revolution could help only a few states in achieving desirable growth and rest of India awaits another agricultural revolution to see the same. North-West region, with states of western Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana benefitted from the revolution most, while states like Bihar, eastern UP, despite growing rice and wheat, couldn’t benefit much from it. Growth in agricultural output remains sluggish for most parts of the country.
Bihar still has more than 50% area under rice cultivation. The eastern area has always been more focused on rice. West Bengal showed very positive growth for oilseeds and potatoes. Growth trends were good for oilseeds and sugarcane in Central India. Coarse cereals still hold a major share of cropping area though it has been decreasing. In the Southern area, the focus has shifted from food grains to pulses and oilseeds. While coarse cereals saw a decline of about 50% in the area, fruits and vegetables took their place. The North-West focused on wheat and rice, thus ripping off most benefit out of the green revolution that supported these two crops heavily.
If we analyse the pattern of the area under cultivation for all food grains, it remained almost the same for the North-West region. It was because the area was transferred from coarse cereals to rice and wheat. In the Eastern area, the area declined primarily because they were already cultivating more rice which they substituted with other crops. Coarse cereals were also abandoned in the East. In Central and Southern regions, cash crops gained more importance and farmers shifted area towards sugarcane, onion in Central parts and coconut, fruits, vegetables, and oilseeds in Southern parts.
To conclude, though the green revolution was very helpful in alleviating poverty to some extent and achieving self-sufficiency in food production at the macro level, much awaits to be done yet. 2.06% growth in food grain, which is just slightly above the 1.64% population growth demands more focus on increasing the yields of food grain crops in the areas where it couldn’t happen in the green revolution phase. Crop productivity can be increased through better soil and water management and can be made profitable by investing in farm education and building rural infrastructure. Among several factors, physical factors like soil quality and climate pattern can be monitored to suggest better cropping patterns to the farmers, while social factors and government policies can be changed to cater to the needs of farmers.