Maybe our curiosity is being fed by the Bihar assembly elections pre-poll surveys conducted in this month from September 1-25. Involving a total of 25,898 participants backed up by a battery of party spokespersons, these polls miss the finer points of sample size, data analysis and compilation. At least these pre-poll surveys should have present us with the facts of caste and community.
We could have got a sense of which community stands where in terms of their allegiance and commitment to a political party. How can they be so confident of their guesswork as if not for being the psephologist? Seeking our endorsements and approval for their approval and validation. If they are so passionate, then first they should glance at the available data of 2015.
In 2015, RJD-JDU together contested the Bihar assembly elections registering an impressive win. RJD which tried to pull and plug its efforts at every step fighting a lone battle for its relevance. This happened after Nitish Kumar walked out of the RJD alliance in July 2017 betraying the trust of Laloo Yadav. Maybe, Nitish’s engagements with Yadav wERE momentary given his tuning and tussle with Narendra Modi. Laloo made a big blunder by easily buying and believing the versions of Kursi Kumar.
Pre-poll surveys should catch up with this elaboration rather than giving Nitish alliance a walkover. How can it afford to give Sushasan Babu a walkover and under what guarantees? Who will compensate for the ambitions and aspirations of a Paswan and Manjhi in the NDA? If Paswan is the political weatherman, then Manjhi is a rank opportunist. BJP wants to don the hat by checkmating Nitish as Paswan and Manjhi fit its bill.
BJP is mindful of the anti-incumbency factor and thus would want to clip Nitish’s swings sensing its prospects by awarding an opportunity to its second rung leadership. Amit Shah may involve himself in stitching a careful balance. It shouldn’t impact and influence the morale and self-esteem of the party cadre. Otherwise, it can scuttle the chances of the saffron party in the state vying for the greater share of power.
Pocketing pre-polls won’t do much about the blueprints and strategy being aimed and adopted. How can Bihar be understood without acknowledging its caste composition, alliance and arithmetic? I will candidly confess that caste is a lived and living reality.