Anti-incumbency, lack of education and employment opportunities, the poor state of healthcare and physical infrastructure has mostly dominated the background and backdrop of these state elections.
https://twitter.com/CEOBihar/status/1321446495501996033
Though the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wanted to disenchant voters with the rhetoric of article 370, Ram Mandir and its likes, that didn’t work to the advantage of Narendra Modi.
On the other hand, Tejashwi Yadav’s groundwork on issues that concern the ordinary folks the most has centred mostly around employment. This focus on employment has emanated because quite recently, many migrants were forced to walk for miles to reach their destination thanks to the pandemic-induced lockdown. Why would the BJP, otherwise, announce for the creation of nineteen lakh jobs if elected to power? Moreover, the party-in-power at the Centre was all out against Tejashwi after he had announced ten lakh government jobs for the people of Bihar.
Maybe, the BJP thought that it might grip and grasp the minds of the young electorate and thus, in their desperation, came out with a rushed vision document. Right to health is a fundamental right of each citizen of the country and can’t be denied under any circumstance and condition. How can, then, a free Coronavirus vaccine be used as an election promise in one particular state? Who can provide us with a better explanation for this than the BJP leadership of Bihar itself?
At this point, let’s go back to the question of voting trends in the first phase, which highlights issues that people voted on clearly. The youth is vocal for indigenous job creation and generation, demanding for a shift from their migration to metros for better prospects. How else would they seek to justify their merit and potential? Plus, governance and law and order are also some of the essential issues in their list of affairs.
Munger incident came as a shocker to the state, as the Bihar police maltreated the devotees who were going to immerse an idol of goddess Durga. Can “Nitish babu” explain the act, sensing the popular sentiment that prevails the masses? Chirag Paswan compared this unapologetic act of Nitish with that of General Dyer in Jallianwala Bagh.
In my conversations with the respondents, many agreed that it was neck and neck between the RJD and JDU alliance, based on the caste preferences of the voters. In rural areas, where the JDU candidate is relatively weaker, and the LJP is in direct contest with JDU, RJD is set to gain a significant fraction of votes. The BJP will perform exceptionally in Gaya, Jehanabad, Bhagalpur and Munger with a considerable population of upper-caste Bhumihars. But, their votes might get divided if the voter finds a better match in the opposition alliance.
Although the official voting percentage is yet to be released by the Election Commission of India, my hunch is that the RJD alliance will get around thirty to thirty-two seats and the BJP-JDU alliance will get around thirty-two to thirty-four seats. This will also rely on the tight fight that is yet to come in phase two and three, which will be a decider for what November 10 would bring.