The world’s oldest democracy is all set to go into 59th presidential polls. November the third, United States will vote in one of the most consequential and gauge-bearing battled ballots in its contemporary history. As Joe Biden and Donald Trump lock their horns, what will be the ramification at Raisina Hills?
Perhaps, it is de jure to say that every US election has its implications on the world. Nevertheless, its influence in Lutyens is unlikely. However, the United States and India share a peripheral history. Earlier, in the 1950s and ’60s, US President Dwight Eisenhower and Indian PM Jawaharlal Nehru had displayed great esprit de corps, going to farmhouses and excursions together during their visits to each other’s countries.
Later in the 70s, during Richard Nixon’s tenure colouring the US and Indira Gandhi holding the term in India, the rapport between the countries seemed to have hit a low. The United States seemed to back Pakistan during Bangladesh origination, and India had Russia as its ally. This was a mere hint of the plight before the 1971 war. Later, as the years went by, numerous trade policies and treaties were signed between the countries. Previously, the Obama administration even vouched for India’s seat at the security council table.
Truth be told, the warmth and ties between Indian PM Modi and ex-US President Donald Trump have not yielded a cornucopia. The bonhomie between US President and Indian PM has been apparent, yet India has not received anything concrete with respect to trade and tariffs, diplomatic policies, and negotiations. In fact, a recent incident saw India face relationship issues with its ally Iran due to American pressure. However, on the positive side, Trump administration has unequivocally backed India in its dispute with the dragon. As China intends to attain supremacy of the Indo-Pacific and the Eurasia landmass, these goals are inimical to the United States.
In diplomacy, one needs to comprehend who is worth getting into bed with. The nitty-gritty of diplomacy tries to unravel a space where one will be by your side at the zenith of jam, and will not throw the affinity under the bus when push comes to shove. Despite how luring the concept seems, this doesn’t seem to agree with the sitting President of the United States. May that be his comments on India’s “filthy air”, the internationalisation of Kashmir issue, or his tone during the procurement of HCQ (Hydroxychloroquine) amid the pandemic. Filling of stadiums in Houston and in Motera masquerading conviviality is futile at the cost of international deference.
Like Trump, Modi is an avid Nationalist who pledges to reinstall lost ostensible greatness and sweep aside self-appointed old elites. Both leaders have faced their fair share of denunciation on their treatment of minorities and seeming totalitarian proclivity. Modi and Trump established interpersonal propinquity in Trump’s Presidency, despite various howlers. Modi was reportedly startled to realize that Trump did not know India shared a border with China, and Trump administration officials told The Washington Post that he caricatured Modi’s accent with his attachés.
How Would Biden’s Win Impact India?
On the other side, Biden’s win could spell cosmetic changes in and out. Known to be a progressive liberal leader, the questions on Kashmir, immigration visa H1 B visas, curbing of human rights, and climate change will be on the table inevitably whether Modi administration likes it or not. Tony Blinken, the potential National Security Advisor for Biden’s administration said in an interview “India is a vital nation as far as our overall strategic policies are concerned, and we are closely monitoring the Kashmir issue as well”. The question that should grasp the attention of the Indian administration is whether Biden would back India against China.
Also, Biden’s win in both Houses of Congress will mean “potentially more favourable US trade policies” for India, predicts UBS Global Research, boosting investors’ sentiment and pushing up markets.
In all fairness, there will not be much of an upshot in New Delhi with the change of hearts in Capitol Hill. India as we know – is a great market, and apparently, countries cannot afford to have not had good ties with India especially amid upheaval economic plight. India is a developing country and an advancing economy. Being a home of a billion customers is a powerful incentive. So, the next Oval office bearer has to maintain good strategic relations with India.
That is what the Indian market is worth. Only the trade negotiation and diplomatic bonding with America will aide India, not the winning of Donald Trump or otherwise and that is that. On a global level, things might be viewed through a different prism. While conservatives would still back Donald Trump for his second term and progressives across the globe will want Biden to triumph – in order to have a coherent and piquant world leader, we’re yet to see what unfolds before our eyes.