It seems difficult to sit inside your house for three months straight. Right?
Well, that’s the case with me. I know this has been hard on everybody. As a young, seventeen-year-old in high school, I’m wondering if this pandemic will even end? We all have that rebellious feeling to know the trajectory of this virus. Let me give you a few insights so we can understand this pandemic better.
Let me start by telling you why the trajectory predictions are not reliable. By now I guess, we all know that we have to live with this virus as the new normal. All these pandemics are very uncertain, just like the Spanish Flu of 1918 which impacted billions of people around the globe from Bombay to London. Public Health officials in 1918 didn’t think the Spanish Flu would last three years. That was how uncertain it was!
Now, back to the pandemic, this pandemic is one of its kind. Let’s be clear, no one is immune to this virus. We all will equally be impacted by it if we do not take precautions and not follow the health ministry guidelines. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) has been revising their predictions every day.
Let’s get scientific! Every virus has an R0 number. This number is basically the number of people an infected person infects. Alliteration right there! I guess I learned something in my English Class. Jokes aside, India’s R0 rate is 1.15. This means that an infected person would further infect another 1.15 people. In Bihar, this number stands at roughly 7, and in Telangana, around 2.
If this is considered that means that this virus is going to last longer than we expect it to. We have to live with it. Predictions suggest that we might reach our peak by the end of July, but there are high chances that there would be a second wave – inevitable and ten times more dangerous! Be careful out there.
So, if you were thinking by the end of July you’ll go out to get Starbucks Coffee. Hold Up! You’ll have to avoid any take-away food, any restaurants, and public gathering. If you do not want to fall victim to this virus. Don’t believe in WhatsApp University, we are much smarter and shouldn’t resort to believing that we all will have a vaccine by August 15.
The second wave has already hit South Korea, Japan, Iran, and China. Remember these were the first countries who reported these cases. Just based on guesswork, I expect to see the second wave to reach India by November.
Be careful out there! Be with your family because they need you! We all need to be strong and stay indoors so that we can break the cycle and flatten the curve.
My short answer: there is no prediction. It is just prevention that can help us fight against the virus.
Be Safe! Only go out if it is necessary. I hope y’all stay safe.