The 2019 West Bengal elections were an inflexion point in West Bengal. After decades of being a minor party in the state, it won 18 MP seats and got 41% of the vote. The BJP achieved this victory by analyzing Indian Citizenship through NRC ( National Register Citizens) and CAA ( Citizenship Amendment Act).
However, Home Minister Amit Shah has said that the rules for CAA are yet to be framed due to Covid-19 Pandemic and the centre would think once vaccination starts and the chain would be broken. Political observers are of the opinion that delay in implementation of CAA may be due to opposition in Assam. The protest in Assam is due to illegal immigrants entering Assam controlling over their territory.
However, the implantation of CAA will help BJP in gaining a large number of the voter base in South Bengal. As the party knows it very well that to dethrone Mamta in 2021, it needs to make a dent in her stronghold of south Bengal. The development in North Bengal and the centre policies to reach maximum beneficiaries remain one of the factors for the rise of BJP in north Bengal. The Matua Stake also holds a strong presence in South Bengal.
However, if we consider the formation of a government by BJP in Bengal, It will take more time for the BJP to come into power. The state has the largest share of the Muslim community after Jammu & Kashmir and Assam. The implementation of CAA will blacklist Bengali Muslims and identify them as non-citizens. This will give the major vote bank to TMC along with minorities in the elections. Secondly, Bengal politics is a place to exercise the money power and muscle power.
From the Left era, whenever any political party comes into power, they exercise muscle power over opposition parties. There will be a tough fight for BJP to get votes in South Bengal because they don’t have a strong face of CM as compared to TMC. The CAA might have dented minority aspirations.
But it has given a new lifeline to refugees from Bangladesh. For the first time, their votes also will predict the outcome of 2021 Assembly elections. Party leaders of both TMC and BJP cramps feel that refugees card will undeniably be the key factor which could turn the key factors in the upcoming elections. The same votes will also decide whether we have a secular government or a Hindu government.