This election is basically based on the theory of retention and expansion. In West Bengal, where BJP confidence is too high after winning the 18 seats in the general election 2019. In Kerala, CPM is confident to win two elections in a row to break the 40 years jinx of assembly election. In Tamil Nadu, DMK and its ally want to repeat the Lok Sabha momentum. DMK is out of power for a decade. In Assam, the local player will set the narration for the election. Puducherry will be the perfect example for expansion or retention. Recently due to turf between Lt. Governor Kiran Bedi and Ex. CM Narayanasamy.
West Bengal is the favorite state among all the poll bounding states. Here RSS and BJP’s mission expansion has to be executed. BJP and RSS along with its 33 subsidiary organizations are working for the power they want to pursue for a long time. NDA will be fighting the election as they are fighting everywhere on the ideology of Hindutva. In a recent interview with India Today, Home Minister Amit Shah made it clear that they will fight the election on cultural issues.
After seeing the performance of BJP in Lok Sabha 2019, TMC got a setback. Mamata Banerjee tries to build good relations with the other opposition parties like INC and the left Parties but failed. After losing her close aide like Mukul Roy, Arjun Singh, and Suvendu Adhikari. After all these setbacks Mamata Banerjee hired Poll Master Prashant Kishor team IPAC.
Since June 2019 Prashant Kishor started working for TMC. His team is playing a very vital role there. Famous Journalist from West Bengal Snigdhendu Bhattacharya also mentioned that Prashant Kishor is running a campaign for TMC make-over. Prashant Kishor has taken the Bengal election as a challenge. He tweeted that if BJP will cross two-digits he will leave the space.
2021 Tamil Nadu assembly election is the first election without two veterans Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa. Last time Congress performance in the state dip the DMK. Only 16% of seats were won by the Congress party whereas DMK won its 50% seats. UPA which is consists of DMK and INC will be wanting to repeat the Lok Sabha performance in the state assembly. DMK also not in the mood to entertain Congress. They had given their share in a good amount during Lok Sabha election time.
DMK is not leaving any stone unturned. They have hired IPAC which is the Prashant Kishor team. They are running a campaign to win the election for MK Stalin. On the NDA side, BJP allied with AIADMK to expand its wing there. The powers fight within the AIADMK may affect them. Before the election, VK Sasikala completed her punishment and now out. She might create confusion among the voters. As she is trying to promote her nephew. BJP here looks for expansion. They got AIADMK as their partner may now but in the future, they will be a big brother.
Assam election may lead to the emergence of the regional party. Many regional leaders came during the time of the CAA protest. CAA was the dream law brought by the ruling party at the center but it became the skeleton in their throat. The regional interest matters a lot in the Assam assembly election. There is a vacuum of leadership. Tarun Gogoi the veteran INC is also no more. Two of the famous punch line of the BJP will suit for the Assam election are ‘Vocal For Local’ and ‘Aatmanirbhar Assam’.
Locals who will be vocal about their interests are Akhil Gogoi, Pranab Doley, Lurinjyoti Gogoi, and Badruddin Ajmal. Assam BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma said recently that he doesn’t want to fight an election. If he really doesn’t fight this message will impact BJP. Congress here trying to get back the Assam where they ruled for three consecutive terms. They are following the Chatishgarh mode of election in 2018. They are allying with regional parties but not opening the card on the CM’s face.
Kerala is the only bastion of the left remaining. The most important point that comes here is that Ex Congress President Rahul Gandhi is MP from Wayanad. He is aggressively campaigning for his party. BJP also trying their best. They have tried to use the Sabrimala temple issue. The buzz came soon after as a local news channel Asianet News-CFore showed the opinion polls that LDF may break 40 years jinx of Kerala Assembly. In Kerala right now retention policy will be the prominent one.
Puducherry is a union territory. Here UPA and NDA are in the battle. NDA is consists of BJP and AIADMK whereas UPA is consists of INC and DMK. Recently UPA lost its majority in the assembly. The reason behind this collapsing was the nomination of three MLA by the ex. Lt. Gov Kiran Bedi. Here may be BJP will try to become the big brother after the election.
Out of five assembly elections, almost expansion will matter for the BJP whereas retention will matter for Congress in four states except for West Bengal. Assam will lead towards the emergence of regional parties we had witnessed around the ’90s.