As of 6th March, there were two opinion polls by ABP news -C-Voter. The first opinion poll was on 18th January where the seat projection was NDA-73-81 seats. UPA- 36-44 seats, AIUDF-5-9 and others 0-4. However, this opinion poll didn’t mention the vote shares. Thus, I leave this opinion poll here.
The second opinion poll by ABP News- C-Voter on 27th February 2021 was a proper opinion poll that predicted BJP led NDA to sweep the election getting 72 seats with a vote share of 43.8% vote share. According to this opinion poll, Congress-led UPA is likely to get 41.4% with a seat prediction of 47 seats. There’s just a 2.4% vote share difference and yet NDA is sweeping. Point to be noted that in the 2016 assembly election NDA got 86 seats with just 41.9% vote share whereas UPA got just 31% vote share and 26 seats.
It appears that C-Voter considers AIUDF as a UPA alliance that also won 13 seats with a 13% vote share in the 2016 assembly election. If I add the vote share and seats of UPA and AIUDF then in 2016, UPA along with AIUDF got a vote share of 43.9% and 39 seats. UPA and AIUDF combinedly got more vote shares than NDA. In this opinion poll, ABP News-C-Voters shows that NDA is getting (43.8-41.9) = 1.9% vote share more than that of in 2016 vote share whereas UPA including AIUDF’s vote share is reduced by (43.9-41.4) = 2.5%.
In this election, AIUDF and the Left parties too became a part of the UPA alliance. In 2016, there’s a difference in vote share between NDA and UPA led by Congress (minus AIUDF and Left fronts) was around 10.9% which is understandable as to why NDA registered a huge win. Is it really possible that NDA will still sweep the election with just 2.5% more vote share? Let’s deliberate on it.
I have tabulated the vote share data since the 2001 assembly election as the political dynamics of Assam were different in the pre-2001 assembly election. If the tabulation is scrutinized, then it would be clear that BJP suddenly increased its vote share in 2016 but not at the cost of Congress because Congress maintained its 30% plus vote share though it’s defeated. Similarly, AIUDF too didn’t lose any vote share rather increased up to 1%. Only AGP lost some 8% vote share which might go to BJP but still, AGP was benefitted in the number of seats. BJP has increased its vote share from others.
That means Congress still a formidable player in Assam Polity. It should have contested without bringing AIUDF and because of anti-incumbency, it could have won the upcoming election! Frankly speaking, if C-Voter’s predicted vote share of UPA along with AIUDF is just 2.5% difference, then how can NDA sweep the election? Although I am not sure but think that C-Voter has added UPA and AIUDF’s vote share after the alliance was declared. But I don’t think Congress and AIUDF’s alliance is compatible.
Well, anyone can raise a question on my incompatible reference because both Congress and AIUDF have the same minority vote bank and thus should be compatible. But the Assam political dynamic is a bit different. In Assam, there’s a feeling of Assamese versus Bengalis. AIDUF’s main vote bank is Bangladeshi Muslims or Bengali Muslims of Assam, whereas Congress’s minority vote bank is especially Assamese Muslims. Bengali Hindus already sided with BJP since 2016.
Now, Congress’s alliance with AIUDF will irk even its Assamese voters. Irrespective of religion, there’s an Assamese versus Bangladeshi feeling. The open alliance with AIUDF will make Assamese against Congress and thus likely to lose a sizable vote share. Thus, I think it’s a cardinal mistake on part of Congress.
Congress may harp on the anti-CAA protest. But it should realize that Assam’s anti-CAA protest is different from that of the rest of India. The rest of India demands Muslims from neighbouring countries should also be considered for giving citizenship whereas Assamese are demanding that even Hindus from neighbouring countries must not be given citizenship. Thus, both anti-CAA protests are quite opposite.
First and foremost, Congress doesn’t have a credible mass leader in Assam after the demise of Tarun Gogoi. Second, many of its ground-level leaders quit the party and joined BJP. The third is its alliance with AIUDF. All these three factors will really decimate Congress and thus allow NDA to sweep the upcoming assembly election.
I am waiting for upcoming opinion polls where I want to see what would be the UPA-AIUDF alliance vote share. I don’t think that would cross 30% and there will be a 10% vote share difference between NDA and UPA.