This post has been self-published on Youth Ki Awaaz by Biranchi Narayan Acharya. Just like them, anyone can publish on Youth Ki Awaaz.

Opinion: Will LDF Retain Power In The Kerala Assembly Elections, 2021?

More from Biranchi Narayan Acharya

In my previous article, ‘Decoding Kerala Assembly Election 2021: Will history be created or repeated’ published on this platform on 6th March 2021, based on past election history, recent Panchayat election 2020 results, and BJP hurting Congress Hindu vote bank, I have concluded that if BJP led NDA maintains it’s 2016 vote share of 15%, then LDF will retain power and history will be created.

In fact, in the local body election 2020, BJP led NDA also got a 15% vote share, resulting in LDF’s unprecedented successive win. So naturally, an emerging BJP became an obstacle for Congress-led UDF, especially in the upcoming assembly election where polling will be done on 6th April. Most of the opinion polls, as I have given below, also support the same conclusion.

 

It can be clearly visible from the above table that there’s no mention of possible vote shares of the parties/alliances. As my analysis is always based on vote share (I consider the vote share projection of opinion polls are genuine data, and I am not sure of the methods adopted by pollsters to convert vote share into seats). Thus, I started searching the vote share of at least some pollsters.

Times Now C-Voter gave the predicted vote share for LDF, UDF, and NDA as 42.4%, 38.6%, and 16.5%. In the 2016 assembly election, LDF, UDF and NDA got a vote share of 43.48%, 38.81%, and 15%. Here point must be noted that LDF, despite winning the 2016 assembly election, lost a 1.63% vote share than that of the 2011 vote share.

Similarly, UDF lost 6.97% vote share than their vote share of the 2011 assembly election, whereas NDA gained 8.93% vote share than its vote share from that of the 2011 assembly election. Because of the emergence of NDA in Kerala polity, the point is clear that although LDF conceded a vote share of 1.63% to BJP, it won the election because UDF conceded nearly 7% vote share to NDA.

But as per C-voter, in 2021, LDF again losing (43.48-42.4%) = 1.08% vote share, whereas Congress is nearly maintaining its 2016 vote share with just a (38.61-38.6) = 0.2% increase in its vote share. As UDF supports its 2016 vote share, it means LDF’s loss of vote share is going to NDA.

According to Asianet news-C fore survey, LDF is getting an overall vote share of 41% to retain the power, whereas UDF gets 39% vote share. Most importantly, BJP is getting a vote share of 20%. That means UDF maintains its 2016 vote share, whereas NDA is taking vote shares of LDF and others!

According to 24 news pre-poll surveys, LDF, UDF, and NDA are getting 42.38%, 40.7%, and 16.9%. That means LDF’s vote share is decreasing by 1.1%, while UDF and NDA’s vote share is increasing by 1.91% and 1.94%, respectively.

My point here is that at least three pollsters who have predicted a win for LDF also through data agreeing that LDF’s vote share is decreasing while NDA’s vote share is increasing. That means NDA started hurting LDF’s vote share! Both LDF and NDA’s core vote bank is the majority Hindus.

Thus, any Hindu vote beyond UDF will be added to NDA’s fold at the cost of LDF! If NDA gets around 20% vote share as predicted by Asianet news, then I don’t think LDF can retain the power that means more likely history to be repeated (UDF may win) and may not be created (LDF to maintain power).

Although BJP’s bigwigs are busy in West Bengal and Assam assembly elections, it is quietly working inside Kerala, accumulating Hindu votes and also trying to bring Christian votes through Churches. In Kerala, although both Christians and Muslims are mostly voting banks of UDF, many Christians are not happy with Muslim domination in UDF, especially due to the Sri Lanka Church blast around Easter, 2019. To take advantage, BJP is trying to woo Christian voters by asking Churches to provide Christian candidates for BJP.

I don’t think LDF’s retaining power is so simple with all the above facts and data. If BJP goes on hurting LDF’s Hindu votes, it will be easy for UDF to win the election. On the other hand, if BJP manages a sizable Christian vote, then perhaps LDF would win. There are a lot of ifs and buts.

The one thing is clear that BJP and NDA are growing. When BJP and NDA grow in a polity, it’s always harmful to both Congress and the left. If BJP manages more than 20% vote share, then there could be a hung assembly!

What would be my conclusion? Well, I believe that BJP’s vote share may increase sizably, which makes me understand that both LDF and UDF are neck to neck and have an equal chance of winning this election.

You must be to comment.

More from Biranchi Narayan Acharya

Similar Posts

By Emtiaz anwar

By Saumya Jyotsna

By BRAJ RAJ

Wondering what to write about?

Here are some topics to get you started

Share your details to download the report.









We promise not to spam or send irrelevant information.

Share your details to download the report.









We promise not to spam or send irrelevant information.

An ambassador and trained facilitator under Eco Femme (a social enterprise working towards menstrual health in south India), Sanjina is also an active member of the MHM Collective- India and Menstrual Health Alliance- India. She has conducted Menstrual Health sessions in multiple government schools adopted by Rotary District 3240 as part of their WinS project in rural Bengal. She has also delivered training of trainers on SRHR, gender, sexuality and Menstruation for Tomorrow’s Foundation, Vikramshila Education Resource Society, Nirdhan trust and Micro Finance, Tollygunj Women In Need, Paint It Red in Kolkata.

Now as an MH Fellow with YKA, she’s expanding her impressive scope of work further by launching a campaign to facilitate the process of ensuring better menstrual health and SRH services for women residing in correctional homes in West Bengal. The campaign will entail an independent study to take stalk of the present conditions of MHM in correctional homes across the state and use its findings to build public support and political will to take the necessary action.

Saurabh has been associated with YKA as a user and has consistently been writing on the issue MHM and its intersectionality with other issues in the society. Now as an MHM Fellow with YKA, he’s launched the Right to Period campaign, which aims to ensure proper execution of MHM guidelines in Delhi’s schools.

The long-term aim of the campaign is to develop an open culture where menstruation is not treated as a taboo. The campaign also seeks to hold the schools accountable for their responsibilities as an important component in the implementation of MHM policies by making adequate sanitation infrastructure and knowledge of MHM available in school premises.

Read more about his campaign.

Harshita is a psychologist and works to support people with mental health issues, particularly adolescents who are survivors of violence. Associated with the Azadi Foundation in UP, Harshita became an MHM Fellow with YKA, with the aim of promoting better menstrual health.

Her campaign #MeriMarzi aims to promote menstrual health and wellness, hygiene and facilities for female sex workers in UP. She says, “Knowledge about natural body processes is a very basic human right. And for individuals whose occupation is providing sexual services, it becomes even more important.”

Meri Marzi aims to ensure sensitised, non-discriminatory health workers for the needs of female sex workers in the Suraksha Clinics under the UPSACS (Uttar Pradesh State AIDS Control Society) program by creating more dialogues and garnering public support for the cause of sex workers’ menstrual rights. The campaign will also ensure interventions with sex workers to clear misconceptions around overall hygiene management to ensure that results flow both ways.

Read more about her campaign.

MH Fellow Sabna comes with significant experience working with a range of development issues. A co-founder of Project Sakhi Saheli, which aims to combat period poverty and break menstrual taboos, Sabna has, in the past, worked on the issue of menstruation in urban slums of Delhi with women and adolescent girls. She and her team also released MenstraBook, with menstrastories and organised Menstra Tlk in the Delhi School of Social Work to create more conversations on menstruation.

With YKA MHM Fellow Vineet, Sabna launched Menstratalk, a campaign that aims to put an end to period poverty and smash menstrual taboos in society. As a start, the campaign aims to begin conversations on menstrual health with five hundred adolescents and youth in Delhi through offline platforms, and through this community mobilise support to create Period Friendly Institutions out of educational institutes in the city.

Read more about her campaign. 

A student from Delhi School of Social work, Vineet is a part of Project Sakhi Saheli, an initiative by the students of Delhi school of Social Work to create awareness on Menstrual Health and combat Period Poverty. Along with MHM Action Fellow Sabna, Vineet launched Menstratalk, a campaign that aims to put an end to period poverty and smash menstrual taboos in society.

As a start, the campaign aims to begin conversations on menstrual health with five hundred adolescents and youth in Delhi through offline platforms, and through this community mobilise support to create Period Friendly Institutions out of educational institutes in the city.

Find out more about the campaign here.

A native of Bhagalpur district – Bihar, Shalini Jha believes in equal rights for all genders and wants to work for a gender-equal and just society. In the past she’s had a year-long association as a community leader with Haiyya: Organise for Action’s Health Over Stigma campaign. She’s pursuing a Master’s in Literature with Ambedkar University, Delhi and as an MHM Fellow with YKA, recently launched ‘Project अल्हड़ (Alharh)’.

She says, “Bihar is ranked the lowest in India’s SDG Index 2019 for India. Hygienic and comfortable menstruation is a basic human right and sustainable development cannot be ensured if menstruators are deprived of their basic rights.” Project अल्हड़ (Alharh) aims to create a robust sensitised community in Bhagalpur to collectively spread awareness, break the taboo, debunk myths and initiate fearless conversations around menstruation. The campaign aims to reach at least 6000 adolescent girls from government and private schools in Baghalpur district in 2020.

Read more about the campaign here.

A psychologist and co-founder of a mental health NGO called Customize Cognition, Ritika forayed into the space of menstrual health and hygiene, sexual and reproductive healthcare and rights and gender equality as an MHM Fellow with YKA. She says, “The experience of working on MHM/SRHR and gender equality has been an enriching and eye-opening experience. I have learned what’s beneath the surface of the issue, be it awareness, lack of resources or disregard for trans men, who also menstruate.”

The Transmen-ses campaign aims to tackle the issue of silence and disregard for trans men’s menstruation needs, by mobilising gender sensitive health professionals and gender neutral restrooms in Lucknow.

Read more about the campaign here.

A Computer Science engineer by education, Nitisha started her career in the corporate sector, before realising she wanted to work in the development and social justice space. Since then, she has worked with Teach For India and Care India and is from the founding batch of Indian School of Development Management (ISDM), a one of its kind organisation creating leaders for the development sector through its experiential learning post graduate program.

As a Youth Ki Awaaz Menstrual Health Fellow, Nitisha has started Let’s Talk Period, a campaign to mobilise young people to switch to sustainable period products. She says, “80 lakh women in Delhi use non-biodegradable sanitary products, generate 3000 tonnes of menstrual waste, that takes 500-800 years to decompose; which in turn contributes to the health issues of all menstruators, increased burden of waste management on the city and harmful living environment for all citizens.

Let’s Talk Period aims to change this by

Find out more about her campaign here.

Share your details to download the report.









We promise not to spam or send irrelevant information.

A former Assistant Secretary with the Ministry of Women and Child Development in West Bengal for three months, Lakshmi Bhavya has been championing the cause of menstrual hygiene in her district. By associating herself with the Lalana Campaign, a holistic menstrual hygiene awareness campaign which is conducted by the Anahat NGO, Lakshmi has been slowly breaking taboos when it comes to periods and menstrual hygiene.

A Gender Rights Activist working with the tribal and marginalized communities in india, Srilekha is a PhD scholar working on understanding body and sexuality among tribal girls, to fill the gaps in research around indigenous women and their stories. Srilekha has worked extensively at the grassroots level with community based organisations, through several advocacy initiatives around Gender, Mental Health, Menstrual Hygiene and Sexual and Reproductive Health Rights (SRHR) for the indigenous in Jharkhand, over the last 6 years.

Srilekha has also contributed to sustainable livelihood projects and legal aid programs for survivors of sex trafficking. She has been conducting research based programs on maternal health, mental health, gender based violence, sex and sexuality. Her interest lies in conducting workshops for young people on life skills, feminism, gender and sexuality, trauma, resilience and interpersonal relationships.

A Guwahati-based college student pursuing her Masters in Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Bidisha started the #BleedwithDignity campaign on the technology platform Change.org, demanding that the Government of Assam install
biodegradable sanitary pad vending machines in all government schools across the state. Her petition on Change.org has already gathered support from over 90000 people and continues to grow.

Bidisha was selected in Change.org’s flagship program ‘She Creates Change’ having run successful online advocacy
campaigns, which were widely recognised. Through the #BleedwithDignity campaign; she organised and celebrated World Menstrual Hygiene Day, 2019 in Guwahati, Assam by hosting a wall mural by collaborating with local organisations. The initiative was widely covered by national and local media, and the mural was later inaugurated by the event’s chief guest Commissioner of Guwahati Municipal Corporation (GMC) Debeswar Malakar, IAS.

Sign up for the Youth Ki Awaaz Prime Ministerial Brief below