Reacting to opinion polls is always a tough and tiring task, as you have to factor in sample size, constituency, class, community and all. I am of the considered view that for political pundits and psephologists predicting any election is tricky given the population and geography of the people. Bengal is unlike Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where caste remains a marginal player as for the integration of community and culture.
Bengali bhadralok believes in the spirit of constructive co-operation, mutual co-existence, peace, prosperity, happiness and harmony. It is here that the popular perception of pride and patriotism plays which the right-wing Bhartiya Janta Party has been successfully able to partially tap. Calling for the appropriation of the legacies of Subhash Chandra Bose, Rabindranath Tagore and Shyama Prasad Mukherjee but this unfortunately not taking off as for its contradictory claims refuted by the intelligentsia.
Why has Mamta Banerjee persuaded in organizing and mobilizing public opinions and ideas is because of the fact that she has been a street warrior taking upon herself the core of contesting the hegemony of the Left rule in the state, signalled in her intent when she single-handedly took on the SEZ projects installed by the Left in Nandigram.
Leading to the ousting of the Left parties in 2011- since then Mamta Banerjee never looked back as for her creativity in conducting her constituents. Though she looks all set to retain power her tally may be down a bit giving the Bhartiya Janta Party a chance to electorally extend and expand. If the Left-Congress-Indian Secular Front alliance performs exceptionally than Mamta will go down the wire as this has the potential to split her Muslim votes.
Secondly, if Owaisi too joins the party then the Bhartiya Janta Party will have an excellent edge to checkmate Mamta in her bastion. Owaisi was the man who played the spoiler for Rashtriya Janta Dal alliance in Bihar while Chirag Paswan ensured that Nitish paid dearly for his fifteen years of misgovernance. Bhartiya Janta Party was up all the way from 53 to 74 as for the Rashtriya Janta Dal which was down from 80 to 75.
Defections and desertions before elections are becoming a face and feature of Indian politics. In politics, you plan something and do something one can never be sure and confident of the outcome.