Over the last few days, Russia has amassed its military on the Ukraine border. America and many European nations have warned Russia against its invasion of Ukraine. But in spite of repeated threats of even tougher sanctions by the West on Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of retreat. From a geopolitical perspective, this crisis can lead to some serious consequences not only in Europe but also in Central Asia and the rest of the world.
To understand Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, we need to go back to 1991, when the erstwhile Soviet Union (USSR) was dissolved. Until then, Ukraine was a part of the USSR and known as the USSR’s ‘breadbasket’. Ukraine was always a part of the Russian empire in the Romanov kingdom as Russia’s western front to Europe, even before the USSR was formed. That is why more than 17% of the Ukrainian population is ethnically Russian.
However, after 1991, when despite the promise made by Americans to Russians to not expand NATO to other European countries, America did not keep it and expanded in 2004 to several other countries, including the Baltic nations of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Going further, America even wanted to expand NATO to Russia’s western neighbouring countries Belarus and Ukraine.
Had it happened, NATO would be on the doorstep of Russia, something that Putin considers a serious threat to the existence of Russia. Hence, Putin made all efforts to stop Belarus and Ukraine from becoming a part of NATO by putting pro-Russian leaders in power in both countries.
But in February 2014, Ukraine underwent a revolution of dignity, also known as the ‘Maidan Revolution’, which led to massive protests against its government, culminating in the ousting of elected President Viktor Yanukovych, who was largely pro-Russian. The heavy support of America to the protesters was seen by the Kremlin. Sensing trouble, Putin immediately seized Crimea, which is the most strategic part of Ukraine.
Now, after eight years, both countries are on the brink of war again. Russia wants Ukraine to stay out of NATO membership, while the West, led by America, has been very assertive to bring Ukraine into NATO under the pretext of democracy. But the time seems to be in favour of Putin because there couldn’t be a worse time for America to become offensive.
Not only has America suffered a humiliating retreat in Afghanistan in August 2021, but it has also been internally divided over most of the issues. The Biden government is vastly perceived to be a weak government, and hence, within one year since becoming President, Biden’s approval ratings have plummeted.
Additionally, the US is still combating the Covid crisis and with more than half a million deaths so far, the Americans are in no mood to support Biden and his administration’s aggression toward Russia. Besides, the deep political divide between Democrats and Republicans, especially between Trump supporters and those against it, has created a deep fault line within America.
Even economically, the country is suffering from a historic 40-year high inflation; hence, many geopolitical experts have opined that America cannot afford to start a fresh war against Russia for defending Ukraine, which is not even an official NATO member yet.
Putin knows this very well and hence has chosen his battle wisely. After the Crimean War in 2014, Russia acquired Crimea, but the West has not been able to get it back. Today, Europe is also divided over the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Germany and France do not want to start a war with Russia over Ukraine. Germany is dependent on Russia for over half of its energy needs. Also, the new German Chancellor is not willing to escalate tensions with Russia.
Even France does not want to support the US and UK over the Ukraine issue, apparently due to the recent AUKUS deal that had deeply shocked the French. Also, Macron has been supporting European unity over Eurocentric issues, thereby not willing to accept the US-UK dominated hawkish strategy to deal with Russia.
That’s why there couldn’t be a better time for Putin to become aggressive toward Ukraine. Besides, Putin wants to get re-elected in 2024 and this Ukraine strategy would serve his election agenda. In the case of India, the government will have to walk a thin line because of India’s friendship with both Russia and America.
In the last few years, America has become a key partner for India, especially with the recent QUAD partnership, while on the other side, Russia has also been a long-time friend and partner with more than 60% of India’s military imports coming from Russia.
Hence, even though it seems likely that Russia will invade Ukraine, for now, there are other options on the table such as diplomatic channels, acquiring assurance from NATO that it won’t expand in Ukraine or even keeping a part of Ukraine as a buffer zone. Considering the conditions, Russia has an upper hand to decide the outcome of this situation.
Note: The post was originally published here.