“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
A lot of people, who might be more optimistic than I can ever be, would probably never see this as a World War like situation as threats of Putin are yet to materialise. You can say this might be the same tactics used by Russia to prevent Georgia from joining NATO forces, but that does seem like an oversimplification amid such a storm that has swept over the global political landscape.
However, for a person who is as cynical as I am, looking at the world after crises like Afghanistan or Lebanon, it’s hard to retain any optimism for the future to not be built of “sticks and stones” as I see geopolitics and the global economy falling apart while chaos and terror slowly rise.
It is indeed a time “crucial for diplomacy”.
Even with Ukraine’s internal politics and conflict regarding the Western vs. the Russian inclination since its independence 30 years back, it has come a long way to unify its people.
The Russian influence on the Ukrainian people was felt quivering during the Revolution of Dignity (2014) when Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian President, was ousted from power by a gargantuan number of protesters which led to the peak of tension between Russia and Ukraine.
However, Russia (allegedly) annexing Crimea and attacking Donbas, killing near 14,000 people, the responsibility of which Putin at that time denied vehemently and later went on to admit to having awarded them for their service didn’t, of course, make the relationship anymore cordial.
According to Business Today, “American experts, in contrast, such as Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia, openly called Putin’s action as constituting the first stages of a planned invasion and that the situation is going to get ugly in the coming hours, if not days”.
So what are the things you need to consider? Let’s see.
Ukrainian Inclination Towards The European Union And NATO
“Not an inch of NATO’s present military jurisdiction will spread in an eastern direction.”
It had come quite a long way from this past of rigidity. However, Ukraine, even with its conflict of Pro-Russian and Pro-Western separatism, has shown considerable aspiration to be part of the EU and NATO.
Even though nothing has been said to affirm Putin’s demands of not letting Ukraine join NATO, it does have been agreed that they have no near plans of giving Ukraine a place.
The dreams of Ukraine seem more and more unattainable, as if Ukraine became a part of NATO, Europe would have to send forces to defend Ukraine against Russia under rules of collective defence, something no one can gauge if they are up for.
Even Biden taking a stand against Russia by hinting consequences and putting sanctions on them can’t be seen as a guardian angel of protection: nobody knows what will hit the fan when the real hell breaks loose. After all, you have to keep in mind this man’s policies regarding the chaotic Afghanistan troop removal and Iran conflict.
Geopolitical Advantage Of Ukraine
Ukraine, situated right alongside Russia, was historically always in a majorly advantageous position with the Union’s Military, nuclear arsenal and main agricultural resources in place. The severance of ties in 1991 almost left Russia wounded as its dream of becoming the Eurasian empire came to a huge halt.
Former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote earlier in an article on Foreign Affairs that Ukraine can be a “critical counterweight to Russia” if it is given a space to grow itself towards stabilisation and a healthy atmosphere.
“It cannot be stressed strongly enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire,” he wrote in the article. So it is indeed understandable why Russia would be so eager to have its influence over Ukraine.
The Current Situation
As of now, Russia has started evacuation in Ukraine while they remove its people engaged in diplomatic positions safely, whereas Ukraine lawmakers are allowing citizens to carry firearms to safeguard themselves. Satellite images only go on to show Russia closing in on Ukraine to the point of breathing in its neck.
India And The Ongoing Conflict
India is in quite a bit of “hot water” due to the ongoing conflict that has implications on its relationship with other countries. Supporting Russia runs the risk of upsetting Indian foreign allies like the U.S., which is extremely against Russia already.
There is also a need to address the elephant in the room: China. India and China had a turbulent relationship, with the final nail in the coffin being India’s decision to boycott Chinese goods.
With the Russia-China relationship of “shared resentments,” it’s India that is walking on a tightrope of dilemma. On February 16, 2022, the U.S. made a statement that it hoped for India as an ally in this crisis.
India, being called a “fence-sitter” in certain crises by Western analysts, doesn’t negate the fact that it has helped India maintain a somewhat cordial relationship with everyone. But with the very fence crumbling down, India being able to do that again seems like an impossible feat.
Ukraine is not just an advantageous geopolitical location; neither is it just another country on the map. With around 46 million worth of people there and Russia’s aggressive policy, it is high time we start to care because, without that, the blood is on our hands too, the hands of people busy with their own lives. After all, it doesn’t concern them just yet.
“Will all great Neptune’s ocean wash this blood
Clean from my hand? No, this my hand will rather
The multitudinous seas incarnadine,
Making the green one red.”