One of my friends asked, “If the Russian invasion of Ukraine does not lead to World War 3, will this result in some country’s opportunity for annexing or invading other countries?”
For example, can China annexe Taiwan? Will China attack India because Russia is on its side? Is it an opportunity for India to get back POK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir)? Is this Russia-Ukraine conflict having any message for the rest of the World? I will try to answer those questions.
Yes, China can easily invade Taiwan and annex it in a couple of day’s military operation. However, China has to estimate its probable economic loss because of various sanctions imposed upon it. But then China is a superpower militarily, and thus no World power will intervene militarily.
Regarding China attacking India or India attacking Pakistan to take back POK, we must understand the present-day warfare. If both can retaliate, no full-scale war can happen between two countries or two military alliances.
If China attacks India, then India has the retaliatory capability, and it can hit hard deep inside China. So, China won’t dare a full-scale military attack, although border skirmishes will always be there.
Similarly, although militarily can’t match India, Pakistan can retaliate. Most of Western and Northern India can be attacked by Pakistan military retaliation. In the long run, Pakistan may lose the battle against India, but it can inflict irreparable loss and fatality to India.
Thus, India shouldn’t retake POK unless it is compelled by any Pakistani act that amounts to danger for India’s national security. The border skirmishes, limited war, or even surgical type of proactive operations can be made post any terror attacks, but both countries will avoid a full-scale war.
It’s not only applicable for Indo-China or Indo-Pak situations. This applies to every country in the World. Let me give a couple of examples. First, Iran is not attacked by America or its allies just because Iran can retaliate. It can go on bombing Saudi Arabia and its allies with large-scale destruction.
Enemy countries surround Israel, yet it’s safe because of its retaliatory capacity. America and NATO couldn’t confront Russia militarily because of its retaliatory activities. Forget about all other countries.
Even America couldn’t dare to attack North Korea because North Korea’s retaliation would have a destructive effect on Japan and South Korea. The bottom line is that countries with a retaliatory capacity won’t be bullied militarily by more powerful countries. Yes, there could be economic sanctions that could weaken a country despite having a retaliatory capacity.
The above brings some lessons for the rest of the World, especially in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I have summarised some of those lessons below. However, the list of lessons could be very long.
1. Sovereignty and freedom is the fundamental right of every nation. Also, all should be desirably peace-loving. But then, if you don’t have enough retaliatory power, try to cohabit in a friendly atmosphere along with your neighbours.
Never be a pawn of another powerful country. Ukraine and Georgia are the best examples. Just build your retaliatory military power without threatening your powerful neighbour.
2. No country will help you militarily when you are at war with another country. Despite all solidarity of the west and America, Ukraine is being decimated at the moment. So be prepared if you have a rough neighbouring country because it’s your country alone that will fight alone in case of war.
For example, if China attacks India, then it’s India that will counter the attack alone. Neither America nor NATO nor even a long-standing ally like Russia won’t fight your war. This example applies to the Whole World.
3. Militarily inferior countries, despite their economic condition, must learn to exhibit ‘neutrality’. Just following superpowers sycophantically may bring danger in the future.
4. Superpowers may compete economically but avoid military conflicts directly or indirectly. For example, in the Ukraine crisis, the US and NATO indulged in an indirect military conflict with Russia, and Ukraine foolishly fell into the trap.
Finally, I would say that war is devastating. But a World War in the present scenario would result in a crisis of human survival.