‘Do you think China will invade and annex Taiwan taking advantage of the Russia-Ukraine war especially when Russia is confronting USA and America?’ my friend asked.
It’s difficult to answer this question in ‘Yes or No’ as strong logic is behind each of the answers. Let’s deliberate on the issue.
Yes, China Will Invade Taiwan
China has precedence of doing such a thing. During the 1962 ‘Cuban Missile Crisis’ when both America and Russia (then USSR) were in direct confrontation, China attacked India. So, it can very well annex Taiwan the way it took control of Hongkong overriding the handover treaty between Britain and China that mentioned that China will ensure Hong Kong’s freedom and rights.
In the present Ukraine crisis also, China has clearly said that Ukraine and Taiwan are very different. Ukraine is an independent nation and a member of the UN, whereas Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. Legally speaking China is right at its assertation because no country, I repeat again, no country has recognised Taiwan as an independent Country. It’s not a member of the United Nations. At best, Taiwan can be defined as a rebellious self-ruled territory of China and technically, no one can oppose it. Even Taiwan is represented in the Olympics as Chinese Taipei like Hong Kong.
In the meantime, the Chinese air force also entered Taiwan’s air space, creating panic among many, including the Taiwan authorities. On the other hand, Xi Jinping, the President of China, is literally the supreme Power till his life akin to a dictator at present post ratification of removal of the two-term system in the Chinese Communist party general assembly. His vision and ambition are known to everyone. Apart from greater China and other ambitions, annexing Taiwan is his primary target.
So, being the most powerful leader after Mao, Xi Jinping definitely wants Taiwan. Thus, Xi Jinping might be seeing it as an opportunity, especially now, because the USA and NATO, although imposing sanctions on Russia but not ready to confront Russia militarily. Thus, if China invades Taiwan, the USA and NATO may not dare to intervene militarily to avoid World War 3.
Sanctions on China and Russia simultaneously may not work because if Russia and China stand together, then there will be a division between East and West. In such a situation, the West will be more sufferer economically. Thus, there could be a truce.
If China attacks Taiwan, it can easily occupy it in a couple of days, because the island nation is very small and just the Chinese Navy and marines will be sufficient to annex Taiwan. So, considering all the above, one can deduce a conclusion that China won’t leave such an opportunity and definitely attack Taiwan.
No, China Won’t Attack Taiwan
There is also some strong logic that concludes that China won’t attack Taiwan at this moment at least. Let’s go through the following points.
China, although a communist country, realised early that to be a super-power, it not only be a strong military power but also be an economic power. Many communist countries including Russia never realised that and trailed economically. China is now the second-largest economic powerhouse and is projected to overtake the USA in a few years.
Thus, China must estimate possible losses of imposed economic sanctions. Its main trade is with Europe and America. Its main revenues come from rich countries. China has to estimate if it can afford some years of sanctions. China is the largest populous country in the world.
In case economic sanctions it may hamper its economy to a great extent, then the large population of China will suffer unimaginably When a large population suffers then mutiny, revolt, etc may take place. Like the USSR disintegrated because of economic reasons, the same could be replicated in China. Thus, China will think repeatedly if Taiwan’s invasion became suicidal to its mainland.
First Ukraine, then Taiwan invasion might have a ripple effect. North Korea may attack South Korea and there could be a security concern for Japan. Although Japan and South Korea are not direct members of NATO, NATO has relations with both countries as extended families beyond the NATO area. If Japan and South Korea come under a security threat, then America and NATO may be compelled to intervene militarily even if that leads to World War. Can China afford a World War even if it gets support from Russia, North Korea, Iran and even Pakistan?
Here point must be noted as to where the theatre of World War 3 happens. Definitely, Russia’s attack against Ukraine will lead to World War 3 as neither America and NATO nor Russia would afford World War theatre in European space or Atlantic area as everything there will be destroyed.
However, if there’s the theatre of World War 3 happened in Asia or the South China Sea involving China, then I don’t think America and NATO will hesitate. In such a case either Russia will remain neutral (because India will be a part of World War 3 as Pakistan’s involvement will be there) or will be involved in conventional war games indirectly like both Russia and America involved in the Syrian War opposing each other.
China might be economically sound but militarily can’t match America. Even China can’t match NATO especially when the war will be in its backyard. Thus, World War 3 in the Asian theatre would be suicidal for China. So, Xi Jinping may not risk that.
From above, it’s clear that both scenarios are possible. That means China may or may not attack Taiwan. If good sense prevails, China may not attack Taiwan. But then if the ambition of greater China overrides inherent risks, especially when the deciding authority is Xi Jinping, then he might take the risk of attacking Taiwan.
What’s your opinion?