The Election Commissioner of India has declared that there will be a single phase of voting on 10th May 2023 for the Karnataka assembly election 2023 and the counting of votes will be taken place on 13th May 2023. As this is a state where BJP and Congress are the main contestants despite the presence of JDS in a few pockets, the political heat is up the ante. So, it’s time for a statistical-based pre-election analysis of the present political scene of Karnataka and the possible outcome of the election.
Before going into the analysis, I want to place some facts on Karnataka politics.
All governments of Karnataka irrespective of party lines are accused of corruption. So, I don’t see corruption as an issue in the Karnataka election. Karnataka is a heterogeneous state with six broad regions of polity such as Mumbai Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka, central Karnataka, southern Karnataka, and Bengaluru Karnataka. All these regions have distinct demography, different political issues, and different pattern of voting. So it’s always difficult for pollsters to predict the election results.
Many say that it would be an acid test for Rahul Gandhi post his Bharat Jodo Yatra. Some also say that the Karnataka election result will set the tone for the 2024 general election. But the fact is, like many other states, the people of Karnataka also vote differently for assembly elections and parliamentary elections. Let’s see it statistically from the 2008 election results. The following table will help you understand.
Note: I have added BJP and KJP vote shares as BSY later joined BJP again.
From the above table, it can be very well observed that within less than a year Karnataka public voted differently for the assembly elections and Parliamentary elections.
In the 2008 assembly election BJP, Congress, and JDS got a vote share of 33.86%, 34.76%, and 18.96%. Next year in the 2009 general election, BJP, Congress, and JDS got a vote share of 41.63%, 37.65%, and 13.57% respectively. Here point to be noted is that JDS as a local party got a reduced vote share from the assembly election to the general election. It has maintained an 18-20 % vote share in the 2008, 2013, and 2018 assembly elections but continuously got a reduced vote share in the 2009, 2014, and 2019 general elections. It got just a 9.67% vote share in the 2019 general election. That Karnataka voters although giving some space to regional parties in assembly elections ignore them in general elections. Interestingly in the 2018 assembly election, Congress got 38.14% vote share but in the 2014 general election its vote share was reduced to 31.84% vote share, on the other hand, BJP increased its 2018 assembly vote share of 36.35% to 51.38% vote share in the 2019 general election. Thus, it’s amply clear that the results of Karnataka’s assembly election 2023 have no bearing on next year’s general election 2024.
Now let’s focus on the recent history of Karnataka’s assembly election results. To understand the changing dynamic of Karnataka polity since 1994 (when BJP started showing its presence as a serious player), the following table of assembly election results may please be referred.
NOTE– In the 2013 assembly election, BJP was split when BSY formed a new party KJP which got 9.8% vote share and 6 seats.
Before coming to the analysis, let me explain what the table says.
In the 1994 assembly election, BJP just registered as a serious party with more than 15% vote share. JDS won the majority with a 33.54% vote share (115 seats). Interesting to note that BJP got 40 seats with just a 16.99% vote share where as Congress got 34 seats despite having a 26.95% vote share which is around 10% more vote share than that of the BJP.
In 1999 Congress got the majority with a 40.84% vote share (132 seats) whereas JDS’s vote share was reduced to 10.42 % because of anti-incumbency and it won just 10 seats. On the other hand, BJP won 44 seats (4 seats more than the 1994 election) with just a 3.7% vote share increase.
In 2004, Congress got 34.76% vote share, just 5.57 % vote share less yet it lost 67 seats from the previous election of 132 seats). On the other hand, BJP increased its vote share by 7.69% to add 35 seats. BJP got just 28.33% vote share and 79 seats. JDS got a 20.77% vote share and 48 seats.
In 2008 Congress got 34.76% vote share, just a 0.51% vote share less but increased its seat by 15 nos as it ended up with 80 seats. BJP increased its vote share by 5.5% to end up with 33.83% but it increased its seats by 31 nos to get a total of 110 numbers. JDS lost by 1.81% but had to lose 20 seats. JDS got 18.96% vote share and 28 seats.
In 2013, there was a split of the BJP party when BSY formed KJP. BP got a 19.9% vote share where as KJP got a 9.8% vote share. But then with a 19.9% vote share. BJP got 40 seats whereas JDS got 20.2% vote share and also won the same number of seats that’s 40. Congress got a 36.6% vote share an increase of 1.84% vote share but it won 122 seats, an increase of 42 seats. The Congress won here because of the BJP. Statistically, I want to ignore it although still we can deduce some conclusions.
In 2018, Congress got 38.14% vote share, an increase of 1.54% vote share, yet it lost 42 seats to end up with 80 seats. On the other hand, BJP got back 35.35% vote share and 104 seats. JDS lost 1.9% vote share and got 37 seats, a loss of 3 seats to the 2013 assembly election.
The Analysis
1) The strike rate of Congress winning the number of seats per vote share is the least where as BJP has the highest strike rate in this regard. JDS is a close second in such a strike rate. The reason is also understandable. Congress votes are scattered throughout Karnataka state where as BJP’s votes are concentrated in North Karnataka, central Karnataka, and Bengaluru. BJP also has some concentration in parts of coastal Bengaluru. JDS is more concentrated in the old Mysore area.
2) Congress got a majority only twice when its vote share difference is more than 15% from the second largest party. It won the majority in 1999 when it got a 20.15% vote share more than that of the BJP. It again won a majority in 2013 when it got a 16.4% vote share more than JDS, the second-largest vote shareholder.
3) BJP is on a path of increasing its vote share in every election except 2013 when it was split. JDS remains stuck with an 18-20% vote share since the 2004 assembly election. Congress too has stuck in a 35-38% vote share.
4) When JDS’s Vote share increases, Congress’s seats decreases. When JDS’s vote share decreases both Congress and BJP’s seat increases. That means an increase in JDS’s vote share is damaging for Congress where as a decrease in JDS’s vote share is also benefitting to BJP apart from Congress. The 2013 assembly election may be ignored because of BJP’s split.
Conclusion
If Congress has to win this election, then it has to get at least 15% more vote share than the second largest party with vote share, in this case, it’s BJP. BJP can get the majority if both Congress and JDS lose approximately 2% vote share each. JDS can get a majority if it increases its vote share up to 40%. If all three don’t happen, then there will be a hung assembly.
What do you think?