With 80 parliamentary seats out of 543, Uttar Pradesh plays a pivotal role in the country’s politics. The party that holds key to UP, holds the key to the prime minister’s position. Major national parties — Indian National Congress and Bhartiya Janta Party, have had tough time contesting with significant regional players like Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party. Congress witnessed significant decline post-independence, having ruled the state till emergency. The first crop of leadership in the state came from the Indian independence movement, and from Congress specifically. This era saw chief ministers like Govind Ballabh Pant, Sucheta Kriplani to Narayan Dutt Tiwari.
Congress’ failure to create a pipeline of new leaders and extreme centralization of power in Delhi were primary reasons for its downfall. Additionally, the emergency, imposed by Mrs. Indira Gandhi in 1975, created a massive anti-Congress backlash. So much so, that she lost her seat from Rae Bareli against Rajnarain, a bhumihaar brahmin in a David vs Goliath kind of battle. Janta Dal riding high on the wave of movement did manage to create inroads into this strong bastion. This vacuum was filled by Mayavati and Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Mayawati under Kanshiram’s tutelage and Mulayam under Ram Manohar Lohia created a strong vote base amongst Dalits, Other Backward Castes (OBCs) and minorities. Their base voted in blocs, and have consistently been voting for them. Both have been strong dominant players – in both Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections.
BJP too saw its political fortunes rise post Mandal agitation relying on polarized upper caste votes, with Kalyan Singh becoming the first BJP chief minister in the state. Post Babri Masjid demolition, Samajwadi party’s base expanded to Muslims. Nonetheless, Rajnath Singh and Kalyan Singh emerged as strong local state level leaders with a mass appeal to upper caste Hindu votes. Responding to this — Mayawati ’s strategy completely changed – she started fielding more Brahmin and Kshatriya candidates from her political seat, also poaching upper caste votes from Congress and BJP.
BJP sensing an opportunity in Modi’s strong Hindutva identity and pro-reformist avatar decided to field him from Varanasi in 2014. The same year party won a maximum number of seats both in Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. Yogi emerged another strong chief ministerial candidate; Manoj Sinha another eastern UP face, too was in the fray to become the chief minister. Apparently, Yogi did a ‘Modi’ and threatened them that Party won’t get support from local leaders in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections with a letter containing the list of MLAs who supported him. Yogi known for making vitriolic comments against Muslims, was quickly seen as a strong alternative for upper castes (Kshatriya and Brahmins).
Party also stitched alliances with small parties like Apna Dal, Suheldeo Samaj Party, and Nishad Party. These parties did cut into some of the Dalit and OBC votes. Anupriya Patel, who took on the mantle from her father was awarded a ministerial birth. Similarly, observing years of neglect – some of the strong Congress leaders like Rita Bahuguna Joshi who also happens to be Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna’s daughter jumped the ship. She too was rewarded with a state ministerial birth.
In 2014, Mayawati saw ebbing of her political fortunes. Her party wasn’t able to win any seat in Uttar Pradesh. In a struggle for survival, she decided to enter into an alliance with Samajwadi Party in by-elections. The experiment proved successful in Gorakhpur and Phulpur. Both BSP and SP combined were able to garner 22% votes each without the coalition, whereas BJP polled at 40% of votes. Their combination proved lethal and did BJP in. Realizing their strong position both the parties have decided to keep Congress out.
Entry of Priyanka Gandhi has no less been dramatic, but much expected. She is liked for her ability to connect with masses and her striking resemblance with her grandmother. But her entry is too little too late. A month away from elections, it will be difficult to overhaul the party. This requires years of sustained cadre building and planning. But, Priyanka’s entry has sparked hope in Congress, and amongst people, she still hasn’t declared the wish to contest elections. If she does it could be game-changing, but highly unlikely.
Her entry will also give more bargaining power to Congress to negotiate a possible alliance with BSP and SP, which could also be extended to smaller coalitions with Bhim Party etc. Her entry also offers an opportunity to the grand old party to reinvent itself in the state that sends PMs to the country. Priyanka’s credibility could also lend strength to the narrative of progress and development in the state. Now that Gujrat model (if existed), couldn’t get replicated. Whatever said and done, this time, the road to UP will not be easy for both the national parties.
The stage is again set for Lok Sabha Elections, 2019. A crucial challenge in front of BJP will be SP and BSP coalition. Another huge challenge is to identify a new set of candidates. Many of the BJP MPs lack years of political experience. They rode on the Modi wave. Now that the wave has somewhat receded, it will be extremely difficult for them to retain their seats. Amit Shah who was at the helm of deciding tickets will find it difficult to sell the same old narrative. Also, Yogi’s period as chief minister has been dismal as lynching and gaurakshas have hogged the limelight. There has been a poor financial investment in the state. Party is also actively scouting disgruntled leaders from the other parties. Elections 2019 are a decisive moment in the nation’s history, but one thing is clear, whoever gets UP right will decide the next Prime minister.