The term ‘inclusive growth’ has become trite in elections across the world. What does it mean?
In India, every government has spoken about inclusive growth – particularly UPA-I when the centre was criticized for not doing enough for the poor, after market-oriented reforms were implemented. For that matter, the NDA also faced economic criticism; partially because it has had hard luck with seasonal rainfall (10% below normal). In spite of this, Modi implemented impactful economic reforms such as the GST, demonetization and the IBC. These are three huge reforms which, to say the least, disrupted. They woke the people and the economy up. Alongside, the Modi government also focused on initial attempts at reforming the agricultural sector.
What did these reforms deliver for the 2019 elections to swing in favour of Modi 2.0? Several important economic items. Although slower than expected, growth occurred along with marked benefits which are very good for a long term, stable and strong economy: tax compliance exponentially increased, the deficit is more under control than ever before as is inflation. This has allowed landmark GDP growth consistently at over 7%.
In my opinion, these were minor add-ons to the 2019 election win. There were two key economic drivers that had a resounding win to bring NDA 2.0 about. First, major schemes of NDA 1.0 gave assets to the have-nots. An LPG connection may not be a big deal to the top 30% of India, but it is a game-changer for a poor person. Likewise, other assets such as affordable housing, electrification, Jan Dhan accounts, solar power, rural road construction, DBT, toilets, etc. These schemes were not just for namesake- NDA-1 ensured these schemes actually reached the poor.
Second, multiple schemes focused on women. And not just women development, but reforms that gave a solid platform for women-led development. Women empowerment had been sorely missing in the Congress-led UPA governments. Fun fact; even if 50% of women join the workforce, India can easily boost economic growth by over 1.5%! NDA realized that valuing females is a critical factor in making a society more prosperous and global case studies empirically prove that. Women’s economic empowerment is directly connected to poverty reduction as is healthcare and education – because women show higher tendencies to invest in both children and community.
The investiture and targeted approach of these reforms created a strong gush of support for Modi from the bottom 70%. Whereas the 2014 election was about holistic change for all citizens (acche din), the 2019 election was all about an evaluation and vote for the progress on “acche din”. While the top 30% did not see much transformation, positive change had happened. Most in this subset would have preferred faster and more substantial change, but it was positive change nonetheless. Because it was positive development, it was enough to give Modi the vote. Primarily, the favouring vote came from the bottom 70% whose lives had been transformed. They voted not because of this transformation, but because of a phenomenon called ‘rising expectations.’
It is this ‘rising expectations’ phenomenon that will determine the 2024 election result. NDA 2.0 must prove and deliver for both the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’ in this regard if Modi is to see a third term. During a ground-reporting tour of Uttar Pradesh, two constituencies I visited with my team were (urban and rural) Gorakhpur and Amethi. Gorakhpur had seen development whereas Amethi was way behind and the reactions reflected in each respective constituency. While Gorakhpur was happy about the development taking place, Amethians were well aware of the lag in development and infrastructure. However, the rising expectations movement had hit both constituencies. Gorakhpur wanted to see continued development. And instead of feeling upset at having to wait for their turn, Amethi was enthusiastic and ready to accept a leader who they believed would bring change. The rising expectations phenomenon was the sole reason Smriti won over RaGa in this constituency.
This is the case in other constituencies across India that I ground reported on. With the NDA’s Sabke Saath Sabkha Vikas movement, the emerging class are now aware of their rights. Congress-led UPA ensured they were oppressed in this regard. This fundamental knowledge has created not just hope, not just a demand for inclusive growth, but a firm expectation to the government to deliver on rising expectations. With the exemplary track record of delivery by NDA 1.0, I am more than confident NDA 2.0 will exceed rising expectations over the next five years.
Through reforms, we are moving from a volatile, unorganized market to a stable, organized one. Transparency gives people trust in the government. We will see more women entering the workforce. Jobs and employment are statistically at a healthy rate. Most importantly, the work ethic and pace of the NDA 2.0 is the biggest confidence booster to me. Narendra Modi getting right to work several minutes after taking the oath shows he is wasting no time.