Covid-19 Fallout: Is ‘Exit Lockdown’ An Option For India?

Sunil Kumar

4 years ago

India took a bold step to contain the spread of Covid-19 disease caused by novel Coronavirus, on 24^th of March, 2020 when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a 21-day national lockdown. With a staggering population at 1.3 billion, India is sitting on a tinderbox of community transmission, though, so far, the government has put off concerns on this front.

As per the official estimates, India has so far reported close to 7447 Covid-19 positive cases with almost 239 deaths so far, and figures are changing with each passing hour. In comparison to countries like Italy and the US, the trajectory of Covid-19 transmission has been less fatal in India, and it has by and large succeeded in stopping the spread of the contagion in its tracks.

However, recent outbreaks in the national capital of Delhi and elsewhere pose the grave threat of community transmission of the deadly disease. The Tablighi Jamaat cluster outbreak in Nizamuddin area of Delhi alone has accounted for more than 400 positive cases. Indian efforts have borne fruit so far where experts say that India may just hoodwink stage III of transmission as lockdown has compelled its vast population to stay indoors thus thwarting cluster outbreaks.

There have been cases of sporadic cluster outbreaks, but India hopes to tide over such cases by following a strict regimen of aggressive tracing, testing and treatment routine. Further, Indian government has recently ramped up its efforts to equip the medical infrastructure by sanctioning more than 15 thousand crore of rupees from the National Disaster Response Fund.

Ethical Dilemma

In the wake of this global pandemic, India is experiencing an ethical dilemma a la Brutus. So far, the Indian government has indicated going for a ‘staggered exit’ from the lockdown, and the PM has asked the chief ministers of all states to suggest a common exit strategy. However, the scientific community has expressed serious concerns as India has reported cases of several lockdown violations in its run so far.

The peculiar social and cultural hang-ups of a section of population points to a lackadaisical approach towards government advisories. In such circumstances, India is banking upon cluster containment strategy and aims to boost public awareness campaigns besides undertaking massive testing. A worrying trend is that a large section of the population is young in India and the morbidity chart of Covid-19 victims in India indicates that almost 42% of victims are in the age bracket of 21 and 40 years.

Migrants stranded at the Anand Vihar ISBT, Delhi amid the nation wide lockdown.

A mighty chunk of migrant labour population adds to the quandary of India as they constantly battle hunger pangs and homelessness. It may be noted that the migrant labour population currently floats along interstate provincial boundaries of India as they have not yet been able to reach their homes since the inception of lockdown.

This makes them not only vulnerable to virus spread but also puts them at risk of becoming asymptomatic carriers of virus as they attempt to cross interstate boundaries in India. Hunger issues further complicate the matrix of India’s contingency plan as millions of rupees are just being spend to feed the migrant labour population who have been left bereft of any financial support as their employer factories and industries stand closed due to lockdown.

Looming Humanitarian Crisis

A potential humanitarian crisis coupled with the possibility of community transmission of disease looms on the horizon in India. To add to the woes, speculations remain rife over hidden cases of Covid-19 as it is expected that number of new cases shall surface once the lockdown is lifted after a week or so in India as per existing government plan. University students constitute almost 38 million of the population in India and the even younger school-going children shall be severely put to risk once the lockdown is lifted in coming weeks.

It cannot be denied that India would need to secure the health establishments with necessary wherewithal to accommodate Corona positive cases in the near future. A large cache of ventilators and life support systems are yet to be acquired, and paramedic staff also needs to be sufficiently equipped with protective gear to deal with the possibility of an alarming rise in Corona positive cases.

These circumstances compound the decision-making process for the government as it faces the ethical dilemma of choosing between economic compulsions and health imperatives. There is also the looming possibility of ‘community transmission’ leading to an endemic stage of the disease. It may just work out fine for India if it decides to extend the lockdown by few more weeks to ward off any possibility of panic outbreak completely.

In another likely scenario, the government may also give a ‘window’ time period to the states to plan an exit as per their preparedness level to deal with advanced stages of a pandemic. World Health Organisation (WHO) has already observed that India has given a ‘robust’ response to Coronavirus by opting for 21-day lockdown. India is now turning to isolate hotspots of community spread of deadly virus fully. So far, it seems India’s gamble has largely paid off, but research studies indicate that a longer ‘lockdown’ can contain the virus.

Whichever way India decides to go, it surely needs to seriously improve its quarantine facilities as it cannot afford to ignore the demographic burden on medical facilities. Also, in the peculiar social and cultural milieu of India, the government seriously needs to impose and continue with drastic curbs on large social and religious gatherings.

Also read: Another Crisis In The Making: COVID-19 And India’s Bio-Medical Waste

Some of the highly problematic cases have been from individuals either dabbling in cultural activities or having an affiliation to a religious organization. India must rise to the occasion and tread cautiously on the slippery slope of Covid-19 disease outbreak. In the given circumstances, another phase of ‘calibrated lockdown’ may just prove to be the right antidote for India to ward off the pandemic threat completely.