Divided we stand; United we all fall! Before I jump into the core of my topic here, a quick recap of history might be useful. The last and only time India ever had a full-blown civil war was in 1558 A.D. between the Mughals and the Rajputs. Post that period, if there was one period where India came really close to a civil war was in the late 1980s to early 90s.
This dark period between 1984-2002 was possibly the worst in modern Indian history. Sikh extremism, Islamic extremism, Hindu extremism, Christian extremism [North East], Buddhist extremism [Sri Lanka] were all in their violent peaks. All religions and all major political parties were involved in some brutal pogroms. Terrorism of all stripes were all over India. While the 1947 partition was more binary [Hindus v. Muslims], this time it was a free for all clash. In this period of India’s worst terrorism, India came twice very close to a nuclear showdown with Pakistan.
I think that what the last government left for us is pretty much known to all of India. One scam after the other became a norm of working/living in India. Hence in 2014, India came out and voted for a change. India and its citizens found Modi the righteous person does so. We gave him 280+ seats to win with a resounding majority. Hope is what our country has rested its foundation stone on. The hope that the roads outside will improve, the hope that I will get a better salary, the hope that someday I’ll be able to buy my dream house.
India and Indians are ‘hopeful’ people.
Hence as always, their lies tremendous ‘hope’ in our political system and our state representatives. Now, comes the troubles around being so hopeful. For starters, Modi was expected to come in power and wave a shiny new wand and dispel the UPA created a dark storm. That, unfortunately, hasn’t happened as of yet. Yes, the working within the government is far more efficient and clean vs what it was during the ‘Vadra’ days. India today is on the global map for being one of the fastest-growing nations, for being the youngest (by population) nation etc.
All the remaining good/bad initiates can be read online. Below, I’m going to enumerate a few of the key foundations stones of Why I foresee the “Civil War of 2022 instead of New India”
The Number Problem
Demographics Age structure: 0-14 years: 27.71% (male 186,420,229/female 164,611,755) 15-24 years: 17.99% (male 121,009,850/female 106,916,692) 25-54 years: 40.91% (male 267,203,029/female 251,070,105) 55-64 years: 7.3% (male 46,398,574/female 46,105,489) 65 years and over: 6.09% (male 36,549,003/female 40,598,872) (2016 est.) As seen in this chart above over 55% of India is below 30 years of age. Yes, this does mean we have a lovely young population (me included!!).
The problem begins with this chart. By the year 2022, over 33% of India will be in the 18-30-year age bracket. This new generation of India or the so-called millennials is the working force whose aspirations from life and work are a little away from reality. This generation needs instant glory/gratification. Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Whatsapp, iPhones, iPads, Flipkart, Uber, Ola, Amazon are all for and by their usage. Now we come to a very critical question- How would this generation sustain without a job/employment/salary??
Unemployment
The unemployment rate in the country will stand at 3.5 per cent in 2018 and 2019 – the same level of unemployment seen in 2017 and 2016, the ILO’s ‘World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018’ report said. In its 2017 report, the ILO had projected the unemployment rate in India at 3.4 per cent in 2017 and 2018. The ILO said the unemployment rate at a global level would decline for the first time in three years. According to its latest report, the number of jobless in the country will increase to 18.6 million in 2018 and 18.9 million in 2019, against 18.3 million in 2017.
In last year’s report, the ILO had forecast that the number of unemployed in the country is expected to be 18 million in 2018 and had estimated the unemployment figure for 2017 at 17.8 million. The ILO has, on the contrary, projected a dip in unemployment rate globally from 5.6 per cent in 2017 to 5.5 per cent in 2018 and 2019. In its 2017 report, the ILO had projected the global unemployment rate at 5.8 per cent for 2017 and 2018. Globally, 192.3 million people will remain unemployed in 2018 – a slight dip from 192.7 million in 2017.
Technology will act as the ultimate ‘Nail in the Coffin’ towards the rising unemployment! I think that more unemployment will create more anti-social activities and that push into the situation of the Civil War. All youth try to full their dreams but not having cash flow in the account will disturb the societies structure.
The Money Problem
Income inequality in India If there’s one thing that November 8th 2016 demonetization drive didn’t change are these ridiculous numbers- The richest 1% of Indians own approx 73% of the wealth.
The richest 10 % of the Indians own approx 85% of the wealth. This trend is going in the upward direction every year, which means the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer!!! ‘Modi’ thought that by banning old denomination notes overnight this inequality would reduce. He thought that by attaching a stigma around cash he could make the country come clean overnight.
Literally, all of India stood in lines outside ATM’s to withdraw whatever new currency they could. For 50 freaking days, every Indian became an economist of sorts. The poor stood in lines with a single thought process- “Modi ji has said that by standing here I’m a quasi Jawan fighting the evil of Black Money+ My ‘saab’ is going to lose some of his money so why not enjoy that sadistic pleasure too??!!” Barring a one-off case, the rich/neo-rich spent 50 days in fighting the system. The entire old currency came back into the system and almost nothing was left for the RBI to give as dividend!! Such a scenario is not good for societies.
If the income gap will increase in such ratio then one or other will take an unconstitutional way to earn the money or Rate of Crime will increase. In recent history, few of the countries faced such problem where common people come to road for justification. Crony capitalism somehow good for society to create the opportunity but if will extent the limits then the result will be dangerous and might be force the pollution to move for Civil War and take what they want.
Farmer Income Promise And
The promise From First Prime Minister to the current Prime Minister but Farmer Income remain same. All the political parties (State and Centre) before the election announced for doubling the income for the farmer without any road map and after election busy to write off the capitalist defaulters. They have to write off the businessmen loan as they received such amount by as “Party Chanda”. By several accounts, there was no abatement in farmers’ suicides in the last two years, and Maharashtra continues to head the list.
The latest figures for 2016 and 2017 are not available, but according to the National Crime Records Bureau, 8,007 farmers died by suicide in 2015 as compared to 5,650 in 2014. This does not include suicides by 4,595 labourers in 2015 as against 6,710 in 2014. The loan waiver trigger was the assembly election in Uttar Pradesh in February this year, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed during his campaign to waiving farmers’ loans for a certain category of loaners. The Adityanath government that was formed had to fulfil that promise with a Rs 36,000 crore package which, as it turned out, was initially fraught with a gross shortcoming in implementation.
In Punjab, which had also gone to the polls in February along with Uttar Pradesh, Congress party’s chief ministerial candidate Amarinder Singh made a similar promise. After coming to power, he set up a committee and much thought was given to how they would implement a waiver, given their limited resources. Finally, an Rs. 15,000 – crore package was worked out. BJP-Shiv Sena-ruled Maharashtra, which has seen the highest number of farmers’ suicides over the years, also announced a package of Rs 30,000 crore but again, implementation has been tardy.
After the mess up in Mandsaur in Madhya Pradesh, where at least five farmers were reported to have been killed during protests, Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje brought in experts to work out a deal including levying a lower rate of interest on agricultural borrowings. BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan go to polls next year and, therefore, have much at stake in resolving farmers’ issues. Bowing to pressure, Madhya Pradesh under Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Haryana under Manohar Lal Khattar decided to pay growers the difference between the minimum support price and the distress sale rate.
Since the agriculture sector of the country is under stress currently, the government needs to ensure adequate reforms are introduced to revive the sector. Even as the government is readying up to its future in the 2019 elections, agriculture sector plays a pivotal role in its scheme of things. “Agriculture sector needs the much-needed attention and 52% population of the country are looking forward to reforms in this sector for the last 4 years. It would be unwise for the government to not look at this sector seriously as it is facing a crisis at the moment and can really make or break the government’s future in the 2019 elections.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley should also ensure that the minimum support price (MSP) offered to farmers gets linked to the actual expense incurred by him on the ground in Union Budget 2018, says he. “The measures need to go beyond a mere loan waiver but should fulfil the promise made in the election manifesto of the Minimum Support Price being linked to the actual expense incurred by the farmers (in fact actual expense +50%). The technicalities can be deliberated upon, but steps should be taken in this direction instead of hiding behind the food inflation excuse,”
No one can survive without food and “New India” not possible without the actual growth of farmer. In 2022 if all have money but not Food then the country will face the same problem as Zimbabwe.
Scams
Manmohan Singh – Sab Commands Aaye Madam se Arun Jaitley – Statutory Cess Adding Machine Mayawati – Scheduled Castewaalon Aao Merepaas Arvind Kejriwal – Sardi, Cough Aur Muffler?
This is also the best tool for a politician to fool the voters during election and came to power. Better not to talk on Scams “Karta Sab Hai Par Dekhta Koi Nahi”. Summing up the above five pointers; In my opinion, the upcoming Civil War 2022 would not find fuel in the age-old causes such as religion, caste or region…They could all act as catalysts but the real full-blown fight would be for freedom, equality and survival. It’ll be a war fought by the youth towards asking some hard questions with regards to sustainable governance, employment, affordability of basic amenities such as housing and food.
It will be more heinous than anyone can ever imagine. The things which most of you see as India’s strength are actually the cause of inaction over any issue decisively, as no one wants to take risk of life or property for RIGHT. Mark my words the world is heading into highly uncertain times. Global leadership will be tested in the times ahead. Economies can be made or completely shattered with a ‘Black Swan’ President like Trump, Putin, Xi Jinping.
Mass public protests such as the ones we are seeing in the US currently or the London riots a few years ago or the Occupy Wall Street movement have all got a common string- Public Discontent!
My Opinion
If Modi is unable to fulfil at least 2 out of 5, then the horn of Civil War will start from last of 2020 and if the same pace will continue then at the beginning of 2022 India will in Mode of Civil War. Few of my friends will not agree and try to be blind but the reality is reality. The 2019 election will be very crucial for political parties as they have to deliver what they will promise. In the Era of technology, political parties can’t fool the citizen for a long time. Gradually youth have less patience compare to last decade. More always harmful for all.
Disclosure: All views here are entirely my own and are not influenced by anyone else. I have no political vendetta against anyone or any party. All I care for is just one thing- my motherland- India and its progress. I would hope that my above-mentioned predictions never come true. This note is only meant to make you ponder on all possible scenarios of where the country could head if we all act as selfish irresponsible citizens!!!