After the result of the Bihar Assembly Election, many BJP and JDU supporters were relieved that now, at least Nitish Kumar will be able to retain power with a wafer-thin majority. Many also opined that Bihar has become saffron and it will help BJP in winning the West Bengal assembly election due next year.
But then the question is whether Nitish Kumar will be sustained as Chief Minister of Bihar in this assembly? Think again?
Oh no! Don’t doubt BJP’s intention. In fact, this is such a mandate that BJP can’t do any harm to Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar can even dictate terms with BJP despite his reduced numbers. The problem lies elsewhere. Let’s discuss that.
Just look at the numbers. If you add BJP and JDU’s numbers it comes to (74+43) 117. If you add the numbers of HAM-S and VIP, the count goes up to 125. But be warned, HAM-S and VIP (Each having 4 seats) are not loyal to NDA and can change sides if there’s a big reward. I won’t be surprised if Tejashwi Yadav offers them Dy CM posts. Where would NDA (BJP and JDU) find the numbers? There’s one independent, one LJP and let’s consider one BSP.
Still, their number stops at 120 if HAM-S and VIP switch to the MGB side. AIMIM having 5 seats is very critical and I think they are the kingmakers at the moment. AIMIM will never support NDA, rather it can extend conditional support to MGB.
With 74 seats, BJP is helpless and with 117 seats, NDA too is helpless. HAM-S and VIP are parties that were with MGB earlier. Thus, Nitish retaining Chief ministership and NDA retaining Bihar looks very difficult although initially Nitish Kumar will be invited for oath-taking and maybe CM for some weeks.
On the other hand, MGB if got the support of these 8 (4 of HAM-S and 4 of VIP), its number will be 118 and we can add another three (LJP-1, BSP-1, and Independent-1), the number reaches 121. AIMIM may get the speaker post and the MGB government is through! It’s not impossible. Please recall my article on Maharashtra published in this platform on 4th November 2019. where I wrote that ‘I won’t be surprised if there’s a Shiv Sena CM supported by Congress and NCP from outside’.
Factually Congress and NCP became part of the government but Shiv Sena Chief Minister indeed happened. That apprehension came true despite last moment effort by BJP and Ajit Pawer to install a BJP led government! If that can happen with established parties changing their sides, why can’t happen this in Bihar?
To avoid such a takeover by MGB, BJP has only one option to engineer a split in Bihar Congress MLA because Left parties won’t split and only Congress is vulnerable as witnessed in Karnataka, MP, Goa, Manipur, and elsewhere. Point is, will Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar accept this? Even if they accept, will Bihar Congress split?
It’s difficult to say what will happen, but I can say with guarantee that there would be an unstable government in Bihar that would be formed driven by selfish interest, and finally, the sufferer will be the people of Bihar. Sometimes when we give such a close mandate such an unstable polity emerges.