In my previous article, ‘Decoding Kerala Assembly Election 2021: Will history be created or repeated’ published on this platform on 6th March 2021, based on past election history, recent Panchayat election 2020 results, and BJP hurting Congress Hindu vote bank, I have concluded that if BJP led NDA maintains it’s 2016 vote share of 15%, then LDF will retain power and history will be created.
In fact, in the local body election 2020, BJP led NDA also got a 15% vote share, resulting in LDF’s unprecedented successive win. So naturally, an emerging BJP became an obstacle for Congress-led UDF, especially in the upcoming assembly election where polling will be done on 6th April. Most of the opinion polls, as I have given below, also support the same conclusion.
It can be clearly visible from the above table that there’s no mention of possible vote shares of the parties/alliances. As my analysis is always based on vote share (I consider the vote share projection of opinion polls are genuine data, and I am not sure of the methods adopted by pollsters to convert vote share into seats). Thus, I started searching the vote share of at least some pollsters.
Times Now C-Voter gave the predicted vote share for LDF, UDF, and NDA as 42.4%, 38.6%, and 16.5%. In the 2016 assembly election, LDF, UDF and NDA got a vote share of 43.48%, 38.81%, and 15%. Here point must be noted that LDF, despite winning the 2016 assembly election, lost a 1.63% vote share than that of the 2011 vote share.
Similarly, UDF lost 6.97% vote share than their vote share of the 2011 assembly election, whereas NDA gained 8.93% vote share than its vote share from that of the 2011 assembly election. Because of the emergence of NDA in Kerala polity, the point is clear that although LDF conceded a vote share of 1.63% to BJP, it won the election because UDF conceded nearly 7% vote share to NDA.
But as per C-voter, in 2021, LDF again losing (43.48-42.4%) = 1.08% vote share, whereas Congress is nearly maintaining its 2016 vote share with just a (38.61-38.6) = 0.2% increase in its vote share. As UDF supports its 2016 vote share, it means LDF’s loss of vote share is going to NDA.
According to Asianet news-C fore survey, LDF is getting an overall vote share of 41% to retain the power, whereas UDF gets 39% vote share. Most importantly, BJP is getting a vote share of 20%. That means UDF maintains its 2016 vote share, whereas NDA is taking vote shares of LDF and others!
According to 24 news pre-poll surveys, LDF, UDF, and NDA are getting 42.38%, 40.7%, and 16.9%. That means LDF’s vote share is decreasing by 1.1%, while UDF and NDA’s vote share is increasing by 1.91% and 1.94%, respectively.
My point here is that at least three pollsters who have predicted a win for LDF also through data agreeing that LDF’s vote share is decreasing while NDA’s vote share is increasing. That means NDA started hurting LDF’s vote share! Both LDF and NDA’s core vote bank is the majority Hindus.
Thus, any Hindu vote beyond UDF will be added to NDA’s fold at the cost of LDF! If NDA gets around 20% vote share as predicted by Asianet news, then I don’t think LDF can retain the power that means more likely history to be repeated (UDF may win) and may not be created (LDF to maintain power).
Although BJP’s bigwigs are busy in West Bengal and Assam assembly elections, it is quietly working inside Kerala, accumulating Hindu votes and also trying to bring Christian votes through Churches. In Kerala, although both Christians and Muslims are mostly voting banks of UDF, many Christians are not happy with Muslim domination in UDF, especially due to the Sri Lanka Church blast around Easter, 2019. To take advantage, BJP is trying to woo Christian voters by asking Churches to provide Christian candidates for BJP.
I don’t think LDF’s retaining power is so simple with all the above facts and data. If BJP goes on hurting LDF’s Hindu votes, it will be easy for UDF to win the election. On the other hand, if BJP manages a sizable Christian vote, then perhaps LDF would win. There are a lot of ifs and buts.
The one thing is clear that BJP and NDA are growing. When BJP and NDA grow in a polity, it’s always harmful to both Congress and the left. If BJP manages more than 20% vote share, then there could be a hung assembly!
What would be my conclusion? Well, I believe that BJP’s vote share may increase sizably, which makes me understand that both LDF and UDF are neck to neck and have an equal chance of winning this election.